在经济增长放缓和贸 易战中幸存：赢家和输家

《在经济增长放缓和贸 易战中幸存：赢家和输家》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、EvidenceLabsurveyresulthighlights1.WinterofcorporateearningsisdeepeningRevenueoutlook:weakeroverallandmoredivergent§Respondentsweremarginallymorepessimisticaboutfuturesalesrevenue.Polarizationcontinuestospread:ahighernumberofrespondentsexpectedsharprevenueincreases(13%versus11%

2、inthefourthsurvey)andsignificantlydecreasedrevenues(12%versus9%previously).§Strongsectors:financialsheldthemostpositiveoutlookonrevenuebyfar.§Weaksectors:staples/education/industrials/materialspostedthehighestrevenueoutlookreadingsfor"staythesame","somewhatdecrease"and"signific

3、antlydecrease".Sep201913%64%11%12%Apr201911%67%12%9%Aug201811%62%17%10%Jan201810%64%17%9%July20178%70%13%8%Figure1:Salesoutlook(Jul2017-Sep2019)Figure2:SalesoutlookbysectorforH219TelecommunicationServicesFinancialsRealEstateUtilitiesITEnergyOverallConsumerDiscretionaryConsumerS

4、taplesConstructionIndustrialsEducationHealthCareMaterials0%20%40%60%80%100%SignificantlyincreaseSomewhatincreaseStaythesameSomewhatdecreaseSignificantlydecrease0%20%40%60%80%100%SignificantlyincreaseSomewhatincreaseStaythesameSomewhatdecreaseSignificantlydecreaseSource:UBSEvid

5、enceLabSource:UBSEvidenceLabFigure3:Sectorsrespondedwith"significant"or"somewhatincrease"onsalesoutlook(Apr2019vsSep2019)100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%13.7ppts13.2ppts12.5ppts6.7ppts0.0ppts-1.0ppts-2.1ppts-2.8ppts16.0%14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%-2.0%-4.0%Apr-

6、19Sep-19Apr-19Sep-19Apr-19Sep-19Apr-19Sep-19Apr-19Sep-19Apr-19Sep-19Apr-19Sep-19Apr-19Sep-19FinancialsConstructionTelecomServicesMaterialsUtilitiesOverallConsumerDiscretionaryRealEstateSignificantlyincreaseSomewhatincreaseChangebetweenthelatest2waves(RHS)S

7、ource:UBSEvidenceLabProfitmargins:pressurerisingacrosstheboard§Ahighernumberofrespondentsexpectedprofitmarginstofall,withthecombinedreadingatitshighestlevelsinceourJuly2017survey.Fewerrespondentsexpectedrisingprofitmargins,withthereadingatitslowestpointsincethesurvey'sinception

8、inJuly2017.Thereishowever,stillastablefractionofrespon