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1、USStockMarketApple:EnlargeuserbaseandenrichcontentecologyAnalystYidongZHANGzhangyd@xyzq.com.cnSFC:BIS749SAC:S0190510110012ContactKevinHONGhongjiajun@xyzq.com.cnSAC:S0190519080002MengCAOcaomeng@xyzq.com.cnSAC:S0190118070147October21,2019Apple’svaluecomesfromthreek
2、indsofmoats:ecology,productabilityandcashreserves.1)Ecology:Apple’sexclusiveoperatingsystemsuccessfullybuildsapositivereinforcementbetweenuserexperienceanduserloyalty;2)Productability:Applehasawell-roundedR&Dteamtocreateproductswithbothhardwareandsoftwareinnovation
3、.AndApplehasbuiltastrongproductchaintomassivelyproducedthelargestnumberofsmartdevicesworldwide;3)Cashreserve:theaverageOCFofthepastfivefiscalyearsis$69.6billion,andthecashandfinancialassetsinhandexceed$200billion,whichmeansApplehasastrongabilitytoconducttechnicalde
4、fensebyacquisitionsorinvestments.Apple’svaluationhassolidcashflowsupport.ThecompanystartedtorepurchasemanystocksfromFY13.Sincethen,theannualcashbackofshareholderrepurchasing+dividendsincreasedfrom$33.4billioninFY13to$86.5billioninFY18,andthereturnonmarketcapattheen
5、dofeachpast6fiscalyearswasbetween7%and11%.IfwemeasuretheFCFreturnonmarketvaluedeductingthebookvalueoffinancialassets,theratioofFCF/(marketcap–financialassets)isabout19%/18%/11%/8%attheendofFY15toFY18.WecanseeApple’sstockwassignificantlyundervaluedattheendofFY15andF
6、Y16.Duringthematureperiodofmobilephones,Apple’sgrowthmainlycomesfrompricecoverageexpansion,moreusagescenarioandthedevelopmentofcontentservices.Apple'sservicepayingusersare420million,andthequarterlyARPPUisabout$27.Itisestimatedthattherearestill500millioniPhoneusersw
7、orldwidewhoareunpaidusers.Atthesametime,theservicescopehasexpandedtocontentservicesofvideo,games,news,etc.WeexpectthattheservicerevenuegrowthCAGRwillbemorethan20%.Asfornewproducts,itisexpectedthatApplecouldbuildARglassesintothenextmassconsumerelectronicsproductswit
8、hecologicalandtechnologicaladvantages.Asfortraditionalproducts,moreaggressivepricingstrategies,suchasiPhoneSE2,canbeusedtogainmoremarketshare.App