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1、GlobalMonthlyMay2019OverviewTableofContents•••ChartoftheMonthDiscussionoftradeprotectionismNumber,12-monthmovingsum•2000180016001400•12001000800600•Jan-07Feb-08Apr-09Jun-10Jul-11Sep-12Nov-13Jan-15Feb-16Apr-17Jun-18May-19Source:GoogleTrends.Note:DatashowstheweeklyaverageGoogleTrendsearchfor"
2、tradeprotectionism,""tradewar,"and,"tariffs."LastobservationisMay2019.SpecialFocus:ChangingSupplyConditionsinEnergyMarkets•••May2019MonthlyHighlightsFIGURE1.AShareofcountrieswithtwoquartersofneg-ativeindustrialproductiongrowthShareofcountries25Negative2010-19average20151050Jan-17Apr-17Jul-1
3、7Oct-17Jan-18Apr-18Jul-18Oct-18Jan-19Mar-19FIGURE1.BGlobalmanufacturingandservicesPMIsIndex,50+=expansionManufacturing55Services5453525150Jun-18Jul-18Aug-18Sep-18Oct-18Nov-18Dec-18Jan-19Feb-19Mar-19Apr-19FIGURE1.CReductioninU.S.-ChinatradeflowsaffectedbynewtariffsUS$,billionsPercentLevelCha
4、nge(RHS)00-1-10-2-20-3-30-4-40-5-50List1List2List3Source:HaverAnalytics,WorldBankTradeWatch(forthcoming).A.Shareofcountriesforwhichindustrialproductiongrowth(3-monthon3-monthchange)wasnegativefortwoconsecutivequarters.Sampleincludes39EMDEsand29advancedeconomies.LastobservationisMarch2019.B.
5、Dataare3-monthmovingaverages.C.List1,2,and3refertothelistofdetailedproductsasdefinedseparatelybytheUnitedStatesasaresultoftheSection301investigationandtheretaliatoryresponseofChinatobesubjecttoadditionaltariffs.ThelistswentintoeffectinJuly,August,andSeptemberof2018,respectively.2May2019FIGU
6、RE2.AEquitypricesIndex,100=January2,2018120GlobalUnitedStatesChina110100908070Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19May-19FIGURE2.BEMDEportfolioflowsUS$,billions,cumulative12-weekflows20100-10-20-30Post-crisisaverage-40Jan-18May-18Sep-18Jan-19May-19FIGURE2.CNominalexchangeratesaga
7、insttheU.S.dollarIndex,100=January1,2018110TurkeyArgentinaEMDEs90705030Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19May-19Source:Bloomberg,InstituteofInternationalFinance,WorldBank.A.GlobalisMSCIindex,UnitedStatesisS&P500index,andChinaisShanghaiCompos
