（13页）World Trade in Used Automobiles A Gravity Analysis of Japanese and US Exports

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1、WORLDTRADEINUSEDAUTOMOBILES[AsianEconomicJournal1998,Vol.12No.3]AsianEconomicJournal2006,Vol.20No.2,161–172161161WorldTradeinUsedAutomobiles:AGravityAnalysisofJapaneseandUSExports*DaniloPelletiereandKennethA.ReinertReceived21August2005;accepted1February2006Weestimateagravitymod

2、elofJapaneseandUSexportsofusedautomobilesthatincorporatesanoriginal,orderedmeasureofprotectioninglobal,usedautomobilemarkets.Themodelconfirmsthat,overall,protectionbyourmeasureissuppress-iveandoftenstatisticallysignificantandthatwhatweterm‘Grubelincomeef-fects’arepresent.However,

3、JapaneseexportbehaviorappearstodifferinsomeimportantrespectsfromthatoftheUSA,withdistanceandprotectionlevelsbeinglesssignificantandleft-handsidedrivingpatternsbeingacriticalexplanatoryvariable.Keywords:gravitymodels,protection,usedautomobiles.JELclassificationcodes:F13,F14,C20.I.

4、IntroductionTheeconomicanalysisofworldtradeinuseddurablegoodsbeganwiththecontributionofSen(1962).ThisliteraturesubsequentlyincludedSmith(1974,1976),Pack(1978),Bond(1983)andNavarettietal.(2000).Takenasawhole,thesecontributionssuggestthatdevelopingcountrieswouldbenefitfromin-creas

5、edtradeinuseddurablegoods.Thisgainreflectsthefactthatthesegoodsarelabor-intensiveintheiruse,maintenanceandrepairrelativetonewdurablegoods.Labor-abundant,developingcountriesare,thereforebetterabletoutilizethemthanlabor-scarce,developedcountries.Thespecificcaseofusedautomobileswasfi

6、rstexaminedbyGrubel(1980).Heemphasizedtheslowly-depreciatingnatureofautomobilesindevelopingcountriesinexplainingthepotentialgainsfromtrade.Lyingdormantforsometime,thesubjectofusedautomobiletradewastakenupbyPelletiereandReinert(2002,2004)whoanalyzestheusedautomobileexportsoftheU

7、SAandby*Pelletiere:SchoolofPublicPolicy,GeorgeMasonUniversity,3401NorthFairfaxDrive,Arlington,VA22201,USA.Email:dpelleti@gmu.edu.andReinert(Reinert:correspondingauthor):sameaddressasPelletiere.Email:kreinert@gmu.edu.TheauthorswouldliketothankKenButton,MichaelFerrantino,Kingsley

8、Haynes,thelateDonLavois,HiroLee,KeithMaskus,ArvindPana