Facing The Threats And Challenges Of The Korean Eco

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1、FacingTheThreatsAndChallengesOfTheKoreanEconomyPresentationmaterialSeptember7,2004Thisreportissolelyfortheuseofclientpersonnel.Nopartofitmaybecirculated,quoted,orreproducedfordistributionoutsidetheclientorganizationwithoutpriorwrittenapprovalfromMcKinsey&Co

2、mpany.ThismaterialwasusedbyMcKinsey&Companyduringanoralpresentation;itisnotacompleterecordofthediscussion.KEYMESSAGES1.Koreadoesnotappeartobefacingafinancialcrisissimilarto19972.Theeconomyishoweverunderperforming.Thiswilllikelycontinueintheshortterm…andthem

3、ediumtermifchangesarenotmade3.Overcomingthechallengesaheadwillrequireconcertedeffortsofgovernment,corporationsandlabor1CountriesfacedwithpartialfinancialissueCountrieshitbyfinancialcrisisSource:IMF;Literaturestudy;McKinseyAnalysisMORETHAN150COUNTRIESAROUNDT

4、HEWORLDHAVEEXPERIENCEDFINANCIALCRISESSINCE19702DevelopmentofFinancialSystem6DIFFERENTTYPESOFFINANCIALCRISISHAVEOCCURREDU.S.(SavingandLoancase)TheU.K.(1991)TheU.K(1973)Sweden(1991)Denmark(1990)Japan(1990s)Argentina(1981,1995)Brazil(1995,1999)Mexico(1995)Thai

5、land(1997)Chile(1982)TheGreatDepressionoftheU.S.(1929)Indonesia(1997)Russia(1997)FinancialSectorFinancialSectorandMacroEconomyFinancialSectorandRealEconomyFinancialSector,RealEconomyandPoliticalSectorFinancialSector,RealEconomy,MacroEconomyandPoliticalSecto

6、rType1Type4Type2Type3Type5Type6HighMed.LowFundamentalCauseandSeriousnessoftheCrisisKorea’s1997financialcrisisSource:McKinseyanalysis3LOOKINGBACKWARDSTHEREARE10INDICATORSWHICHFORETELLOFCRISISINEACHSECTORSource:McKinseyanalysisWarningsignsValuedestructioninth

7、erealsectorInterestcoverageratioRealsectorFinancialsystemInternationalMoney&CapitalFlowsRealEstateSectorIndicatorROIC

8、-bank,moneymarketborrowingratesGovernmentdebtOvervaluednativecurrenciesRealestatebubblesROA<1%orNetInterestmargin<2%>20%annuallyformorethanoneyearDecreaseofdepositlevelinconsecutive2quartersNPL>5%oftot