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ID:43426870
大小:114.00 KB
页数:21页
时间:2019-10-02
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1、PassageOneTheResultoftheFallingUSDollarLikeatickingtimebomb,thefallingdollarhasgrabbedtheattentionofJapanandWestGermany,forcingthemtoconsideradoptingeconomicpolicestheUnitedStatesadvocates.TheU.S.governmentwantsthedollartofallbecauseasthedollardeclinesinvalueagainsttheyenandDeutschemark,U.S.g
2、oodbecomescheaper.U.S.companiesthensellmoreathomeandabroad,andU.S.tradedeficitdeclines.Criesfortradeprotectionabate,andtheglobalfree-tradesystemispreserved.Then,thecheaperdollarmakesitcheaperformanyforeigninvestorstosnapupU.S.stocks.Thatpromptsheavybuyingfromabroad—especiallyfromJapan.Also,if
3、thetradepictureisimproving,thatmeansU.S.companieseventuallywillbemorecompetitive.Consequently,manyinvestorsarebuyingsharesofexport-orientedU.S.companiesinanticipationofbetterprofitsinthenextyearorso.Butthatisaratherfaddishnotionrightnow;ifcorporateearningsaredisappointingininterestrates,thest
4、ockmarketrallycouldstall.ImprovingU.S.competitivenessmeansadeclineinanother’scompetitiveness.JapanandWestGermanyarevergingonrecession.Theirexport-orientedeconomiesarefacingmajorproblems.JapanisworriedaboutthedamagethestrongyenwilldotoJapanesetrade.WestGermanyisalsoworried.SharepricesinFrankfu
5、rtplummetedthispastweek.Bonnisthoughttobeconsideringacutininterestratestoboostitseconomy.Couldthefallingdollargetoutofhand?Ifthedollarfallstoofar,investorsmightloseconfidenceinU.S.investments—especiallythegovernmentbondmarket.Themoneytofinancethefederalbudgetandtradedeficitscouldmigrateelsewh
6、ere.Inflationcouldflareup,too,sinceJapaneseandGermanmanufacturerswilleventuallypassalongpricehikes—andU.S.companiesmightfollowsuittoincreasetheirprofitmargins.TheU.S.federalReservethenmightneedtostepinandstabilizethedollarbyraisinginterestrates.AndhigherinterestratescouldcausetheU.S.economyto
7、slowdownandendtheWallStreetRally.Worriedaboutthesesideeffects,FederalReservechairmanPaulVolcherhassaid21thedollarhasfallenfarenough.Whatistheequilibriumlevel?Probablynearwhereitisorslightlylower.ItalldependsonwhentheU.S.tradedeficitturnsaroun
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