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1、TrippsLogisticsExample•Demand=100,000units•1,000sq.ft.ofspaceforevery1,000unitsofdemand•Revenue=$1.22perunitofdemand•Signathree-yearleaseorobtainwarehousingspaceonthespotmarket?•Three-yearleasecost=$1persq.ft.•Spotmarketcost=$1.20persq.ft.•k=0.1Expectedannualprofitifwarehousespaceisobtai
2、nedfromthespotmarket=(100,000x$1.22)–(100,000x$1.20)=$2,000Expectedannualprofitwiththreeyearlease=(100,000x$1.22)–(100,000x$1.00)=$22,000NPVofsigningleaseis$60,182–$5,471=$54,711higherthanspotmarketTrippsLogistics–DecisionTreeThreewarehouseleaseoptions•Getallwarehousingspacefromthespotma
3、rketasneeded•Signathree-yearleaseforafixedamountofwarehousespaceandgetadditionalrequirementsfromthespotmarket•Signaflexibleleasewithaminimumchargethatallowsvariableusageofwarehousespaceuptoalimitwithadditionalrequirementfromthespotmarket•1000sq.ft.ofwarehousespaceneededfor1000unitsofdema
4、nd•Currentdemand=100,000unitsperyear•Binomialuncertainty:Demandcangoupby20%withp=0.5ordownby20%with1–p=0.5•Leaseprice=$1.00persq.ft.peryear•Spotmarketprice=$1.20persq.ft.peryear•Spotpricescangoupby10%withp=0.5ordownby10%with1–p=0.5•Revenue=$1.22perunitofdemand•k=0.1•Analyzetheoptionofnot
5、signingaleaseandusingthespotmarket•StartwithPeriod2andcalculatetheprofitateachnodeForD=144,p=$1.45,inPeriod2:C(D=144,p=1.45,2)=144,000x1.45=$208,800P(D=144,p=1.45,2)=144,000x1.22–C(D=144,p=1.45,2)=175,680–208,800=–$33,120•ExpectedprofitateachnodeinPeriod1istheprofitduringPeriod1plusthepr
6、esentvalueoftheexpectedprofitinPeriod2•ExpectedprofitEP(D=,p=,1)atanodeistheexpectedprofitoverallfournodesinPeriod2thatmayresultfromthisnode•PVEP(D=,p=,1)isthepresentvalueofthisexpectedprofitandP(D=,p=,1),andthetotalexpectedprofit,isthesumoftheprofitinPeriod1andthepresentvalueoftheexpect
7、edprofitinPeriod2•FromnodeD=120,p=$1.32inPeriod1,therearefourpossiblestatesinPeriod2•EvaluatetheexpectedprofitinPeriod2overallfourstatespossiblefromnodeD=120,p=$1.32inPeriod1tobeEP(D=120,p=1.32,1)=0.2x[P(D=144,p=1.45,2)+P(D=144,p=1.19,2)+P(D=96,p=1.45,2)+P(D=96,p=1.19,2)=
