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1、Spillonomics:UnderestimatingRisk漏油经济:低估风险DavidLeonhardtPublished:June1,2010[1]Inretrospect,thepatternseemsclear.YearsbeforetheDeepwaterHorizon[həˈraɪzn]rig[rɪɡ]blew,BPwasdevelopingareputationasanoilcompanythattooksafetyriskstosavemoney.AnexplosionataTexas[ˈtɛksəs]refinery[rɪˈfaɪnəri]killed15worke
2、rsin2005,andfederalregulatorsandapanelledbyJamesA.BakerIII,theformersecretaryofstate,saidthatcostcuttingwaspartlytoblame.Thenextyear,acorroded[kəˈrəʊd]pipelineinAlaskapouredoilintoPrudhoeBay,upbraided[ʌpˈbreɪd]BPmanagersfortheir“seemingindifferencetosafetyandenvironmentalissues.['ɪʃju:z]”[1]回想起来,
3、模式似乎很清楚。早在“深水地平线”钻机自爆前的很多年,BP石油公司为了省钱甘冒安全的风险就已经声名狼藉。2005年得克萨斯州炼油厂爆炸中有15名工人丧生。联邦监管机构和前国务卿詹姆斯·贝克三世领导的专门小组认为,削减成本是事故的部分原因。第二年,阿拉斯加腐蚀的管道将石油漏入普拉德霍湾。就连乔·巴顿,对全球变暖持怀疑态度的来自得克萨斯州的共和党众议员,都谴责BP管理人员“对安全和环境问题表现得漠不关心”[2]Muchofthisindifferencestemmedfromanobsessionwithprofits,comewhatmay.Buttherealsoappearstohav
4、ebeenanotherfactor,onemoreuniversallyhuman,atwork.ThepeoplerunningBPdidadreadful[ˈdrɛdfəl]jobofestimatingthetruechancesofeventsthatseemedunlikely—butthatwouldbringenormouscosts.[2]这种冷漠大部分源于对利润的过度追求,不管出现什么情况。但似乎也还有另一个因素在起作用,一个更普遍的人性的因素。BP的管理人员在估计似乎不太可能发生但一旦发生就会带来巨大损失的事件真正会发生的可能性时,犯了一个可怕的错误。[3]Perh
5、apstheeasiestwaytoseethisistoconsiderwhatBPexecutives[ɪgˈzekjətɪv]mustbethinkingtoday.Surely,giventheexpenseoftheclean-upandthehittoBP’sreputation,theexecutiveswishtheycouldgobackandspendtheextramoneytomakeDeepwaterHorizonsafer.Thattheydidnotsuggeststhattheyfiguredtherigwouldbefineasitwas.[3]也许理解
6、这一点最简单的方法就是思考一下BP高管们如今的想法。显然,考虑到清理费用和对BP声誉的影响,高管们真希望可以回到过去,多花些钱让“深水地平线”更安全。他们没有增加这笔费用就表明他们认为钻机在当时的状态下不会出问题。[4]ForallthecriticismBPexecutivesmaydeserve,theyarefarfromtheonlypeopletostrugglewithsuchlow-probability,high-costevents.Nearlyeveryonedoes.“Thesearepreciselythekindsofeventsthatarehardforus
7、ashumanstogetourhandsaroundandreacttorationally['ræʃnəlɪ],”RobertN.Stavins,anenvironmentaleconomistatHarvard,says.Wemaketwobasic—andopposite—typesofmistakes.Whenaneventisdifficulttoimagine,wetendtounderestimateitslikel