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1、Overthenextfewweeks,investorswillbebombardedwithcommentaryabouthowtheoutcomeofthepresidentialelectionwillinfluencethefinancialmarkets.Beforeyouevenconsiderchangingyourportfoliobasedontheexpected-oractual-resultsoftheelection,ifsvitaltoanalyzetheconventionalwisdomfirst.Isgridlockgood-that

2、is,shouldinvestorsrootagainsthavingthesamepoliticalpartycontrolbothCongressandtheWhiteHouse?Whoisbetterforstockandbondreturns:RepublicansorDemocrats?Mostoftheanswersyouarelikelytofindarepropagandaorwishfulthinking;manyareflat-outwrong.Whatmattersarechangesininterestrates,notwhichpartypas

3、sesthroughtheWhiteHousegates.Since1926,whenreliablestock-marketdatabegan,theUnitedStateshashad15presidentsandnineelectionsinwhichcontroloftheWhiteHousepassedfromonepartytotheother.That'sasmallsample.Soyoushouldtakeanystatisticalconclusionabouttherelationshipbetweenpresidentialelectionres

4、ultsandfinancialreturnswithagrainofsaltthesizeoftheCapitoldome.Suchcaveatswon'tstoppunditsfromspeculating.Oneoftheirmostprevalentbeliefs:Gridlockisgoodforthestockmarket.(AGoogleGOOG-1.90%searchreturns135,000hitsonthephrases'gridlockisgood*+'WallStreet.*)AndadividedCongressiswhatmanypolit

5、icalforecastersexpect,withPres.Obamawinningre-election,theDemocratskeepingtheSenateandtheRepublicansretainingtheHouse.Ahardlookattheevidence,however,showsthat'gridlockisn'tgoodforstocks/saysRobertJohnson,afinanceprofessoratCreightonUniversityinOmaha・Inaworkingpaperthatcovers1965through20

6、08,heandhiscolleaguesfoundthatgridlockhadnoeffectonthereturnsofthebigcompaniesrepresentedbytheStandard&Poor's500-stockindex.Smallstocks(asmeasuredbyDimensionalFundAdvisors*small-companyportfolios)returnedanaverageof21percentagepointslessinyearswhenWashingtonwasingridlockthantheydidwhenCo

7、ngressandtheWhiteHousewereundercommoncontrol.Bickeringdoeshavebenefits:Corporatebondshavereturnedanannualaverageofnearlyninepercentagepointsmoreingridlockyearsthaninyearsofgovernmentalharmony.'Gridlockreducesthechancesoftheinitiationofmajorgovernmentprograms,whichcanbeinf