经济预测与决策指数平滑法

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1、《经济预测与决策》作业四1、已知我国1950〜2001年财政支出资料如下:年份财政支出年份财政支出195068.051976806.21951122.071977843.531952172.0719781122.091953219.2119791281.791954244.1119801228.831955262.7319811138.411956298.5219821229.981957295.9519831409.521958400.3619841701.021959543.1719852004.25I960643.68

2、19862204.911961356.0919872262.181962294.8819882491.211963332.0519892823.781964393.7919903083.591965459.9719913386.621966537.6519923742.21967439.8419934642.31968357.8419945792.621969525.8619956823.721970649.4119967937.551971732.1719979233.561972765.86199810798.18197

3、3808.78199913187.671974790.25200015886.501975820.88200118902.58要求：用二次移动平均法对2003年的财政支出作岀预测解：此步骤如下：(1)绘制散点图(图1」)。由散点图可以看出，用二次移动平均法进行预测。203040506020000180001600014000120001000080006000400020000100（图1.1）z--K

4、(2)取N=4,分别计算和陆⑵，结果如下表(表1-1)I960168.0519512122.0719523172.0719

5、534219.21120.7319545244.11171.116719556262.73211.796719567298.52242.0167167.881119578295.95268.4533208.31427.3556131.4060.44401419589400.36285.7333240.7556418.811718.45170.046088195910543.17331.61265.4011398.1778144.99220.266937196011643.68413.16295.2656497.1322146

6、.54780.227672196112356.09529.07343.5011707.8961351.8060.987969196213294.88514.3133424.6133992.9922698.1122.367444196314332.05431.55485.5144738.5633406.5131.224252196415393.79327.6733491.6444296.638997.151110.246708196516459.97340.24424.5122-82.2544542.22441.1788261

7、96617537.65395.27366.4878129.5594408.09060.759026196718439.84463.8033354.3944467.225627.38560.062263196819357.84479.1533399.7711737.3256379.4861.060491196920525.86445.11446.0756677.6089151.7490.288573197021649.41441.18462.6889442.6961206.71390.31831197122732.17511.

8、0367455.1478387.4078344.76220.470877197223765.86635.8133465.7756650.7589115.10110.15029197324808.78715.8133529.34331060.908252.1280.311739197425790.25768.9367620.88781181.988391.7380.495714197526820.88788.2967706.85441139.059318.1790.387607197627806.2806.6367757.68

9、22991.9022185.7020.230342197728843.53805.7767787.9567929.022885.49280.1013511978291122.09823.5367800.2367850.3267271.76330.2421941979301281.79923