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1、ChinaViewsJune10,2008GSGLOBALECONOMICWEBSITEEconomicResearchfromtheGSInstitutionalPortalathttps://portal.gs.comHongLiangInflationoutlook:Silverliningemerging,butdarkhong.liang@gs.com852-2978-1941cloudsstillhangingaround1.Whilemanyregionaleconomiesrep
2、ortednewmulti-yearhighCPInumberslately,ChinawilllikelybuckthetrendbyreportingapotentiallylowerCPIreadingforMayascomparedwithApril(seeCPIinflationlikelybeginstotrenddownwhilePPIcontinuestorise—apreviewoftheMaydata,ChinaViews,June6).YettheChineseequity
3、marketsseemtotakelittlecomfortfromthisexpectation,whichshouldhavebeenbuildingsinceearlyMaywhenpricesofdailyfoodproducebegantoseasonallysubside.Whatisthemarketworriedabout?2.Clearly,risingenergypricesareweighingoninvestors’minds.Inparticular,China’sen
4、ergypricecontrolsandincreasinglyfrequentreportsofenergyshortageshaveledinvestorstowonderwhethertheunderlyinginflationpressureshavetrulybeguntotrenddowneveniftheofficially-reportedheadlinenumbersbegintosoften.Moreimportantly,suchpricecontrolsareclearl
5、yneitherefficientnorsustainable,andtherefore,itbegsthequestionofwhoisbearingthecostsofthepricecontrols,whentheywill(haveto)bescrubbed,andwhatwillthenhappentoheadlineinflationandgrowth.3.Althoughtheseareimportantissues,webelievethekeytoassessChina’sin
6、flationoutlookremainstobehowsuccessfulthecentralbankisincontrollingbroadmoneysupplygrowth.Itishereweseesomepositivesignsemerging:thegrowthrateofbroadmoneysupply,asmeasuredbyourpreferredM3proxy,seemstohavepeakedlastOctober,andhavebeengraduallytrending
7、down(seeExhibit1).Ifthecentralbankcankeepmoneysupplygrowthfromrebounding,CPIinflationwouldlikelyalsohavepeakedandwouldbegintotrenddowntowards5%-6%laterthisyear.4.Inourview,themainreasonthatChina’sCPIinflationtrendmaydifferfromthatoftheregionisbecause
8、thePeople’sBankofChinahastightenedmonetarypolicyearlierandmoreaggressively.TheauthoritiesbecamemoreconcernedaboutinflationafterheadlineCPIbroke6%in4Q2007,andtheybegantotightendomesticbankcreditsmoreforcefully.Afterputtingbanklendingonatightleashfor6m
