Bridge water 0724-1

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1、Bridgewater®DailyObservationsJuly21,2015©2015BridgewaterAssociates,LP(203)2263030RayDalioMarkDinnerStevenKrygerBobPrinceBrandonRowleyGreaterRisksinChinaSummaryOurviewsaboutChinahavechangedasaresultofrecentdevelopmentsinthestockmarket.Wepreviouslyconveyedourthinkingaboutth

2、edebtandeconomicrestructuringsbeingnegativeforgrowthovertheneartermandpositiveforgrowthoverthelongterm—i.e.,thatitisanecessaryanddelicateoperationthatcanbewellmanaged.Whilewehadpreviouslyconsidereddevelopmentsinthestockmarkettobesupportivetogrowth,recentdevelopmentshavele

3、dustoexpectthemtobenegativeforgrowth.Whilewewouldordinarilyconsidertheimpactofthestockmarketbubbleburstingtobearathersmallnetnegativebecausethepercentageofthepopulationthatisinvestedinthestockmarketandthepercentageofhouseholdsavingsinvestedinstocksarebothsmall,itappearsth

4、attherepercussionsofthestockmarket’sdeclineswillprobablybegreater.Becausetheforcesongrowtharecomingfromdebtrestructurings,economicrestructurings,andrealestateandstockmarketbubblesburstingallatthesametime,wearenowseeingmutuallyreinforcingnegativeforcesongrowth.Whileatthiss

5、tageitistooearlytoassesshowstronglythestockmarket’sdeclinewillpassthroughnegativelytocreditandeconomicgrowth,wewillsoonhaveindicationsofthis.Wewillbewatchingourshort-termindicatorsofChinesecreditandeconomicgrowthcarefullytoseewhatthepassthroughtotheeconomyofthesedevelopme

6、ntsislike,andwewillcontinuetoshareourthoughtaboutwhatishappening.SincethelinkagesinChinaarebroadlyanalogouswiththoseinothercountriesthatwedohavegoodperspectiveson,itisworthwhiletolookatthedynamicwiththisperspectiveinmind.ThisisthesameperspectiveaswehavetakeninlookingatChi

7、na’sdebtandeconomicsituations.IwillexplaininmoredetailhowourthinkinghaschangedasaresultofrecenteventsinSection1.Thestockmarketanddebtbubbleburstingsimultaneouslyhashappenedmanytimesbeforeinmanycountries.Weidentified28casesamongmajoreconomiesinthelast100years.Whilenotwocas

8、esareexactlythesame,thebasicdynamicsofsuchcasesandthetoolsfortreatingthemareessentiallythesame.L