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1、AFractionalSplitDistributionModelforStatewideCommodityFlowAnalysisArunaSivakumarandChandraBhatDepartmentofCivilEngineering,ECJ6.8UniversityofTexasatAustin,Austin,Texas,78712Phone:(512)471-4535,Fax:(512)475-8744,Email:arunas@mail.utexas.edu,bhat@mail.utexas.eduABSTRACTThispaperproposesandap
2、pliesarelativelysimple,butcomprehensive,approachtomodelinginter-regionalcommodityflowvolumes.Theapproachestimatesthefractionofcommodityconsumedateachdestinationzonethatoriginatesfromalternativeproductionzones.Theresultingfractionalsplitmodelforcommodityflowdistributionismoregeneralinstruct
3、urethanthetypicalgravitymodelusedtodayforstatewidefreightplanning.Theempiricalanalysisinthepaperappliesthefractionalsplitmodeltoanalyzeinter-regionalcommodityflowsinTexas.SivakumarandBhat11.INTRODUCTIONTheprimaryfocusofstatewideandmetropolitantransportationplanningprocessesoverthepastsever
4、aldecadeshasbeenonpassengertraveldemandforecasting[seeCambridgeSystematics,Inc.(1)].However,afterthepassageoftheIntermodalSurfaceTransportationEfficiencyAct(ISTEA)of1991,therehasbeenincreasinginterestinfreightmodelingwithinstatewideandmetropolitanplanningefforts.Whilefreightmodelinghasbeen
5、receivingincreasingattentioninstateandmetropolitanplanningeffortsonlyrelativelyrecently,researchinthefreightmodelingareahasalonghistory.Manydifferentquantitativeapproacheshavebeenproposedforfreightmodelingintheliterature,ofwhichthreehavereceivedparticularattention.Theseare:(1)trendanalysis
6、,(2)theinter-1agentinteractionapproach,and(3)thefour-stepapproach.Eachofthethreeapproacheslistedaboveisbrieflydiscussedinturninthenextthreesections[thereaderisreferredtoPendyalaetal.andShankarandPendyalaforcomprehensiveanddetailedreviewsoffreightmodelingapproaches(4,5)].1.1.TrendAnalysisTh
7、etrendanalysisapproachexaminescurrentfreightflowpatterns,andthetrendinfreightflowpatternsoverthepastseveralyears,topredictfutureflows[see,Middendorfetal.(6)andCambridgeSystematics,Inc.(1)].Thetrendanalysisapproachisconceptuallystraightforward,isnotdata-intensi
