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1、CHAPTER11CashFlowEstimationandRiskAnalysisnthelastchapterwediscussedhowtherecessioncausedFPLGrouptoIreduceitsplannedcapitalexpendituresfrom$7billionto$5.3billion.Thatchangerippledthroughtheeconomy.ItreducedFPL’sjobcount,whichhadanegativeeffectonhousing
2、andretailsalesinFlorida,wheremostofitsoperationsarebased.ItalsoledtojoblossesinsupplierfirmslikeGEthatwouldhavesuppliedFPLwithwindturbinesandothermaterialsneededforthecanceledprojects.Itreducedour“green”powerandthusincreasedourrelianceoncoalandforeigno
3、il.Salestaxes,propertytaxes,andincometaxesalsofell,negativelyaffectingcitiesandstatesaswellasthefederalgovernment.FPL’sexperiencewasmatchedbythousandsofotherbusinessesallovertheworld;inthisway,itexacerbatedtheglobalrecessionandincreasedthepossibilities
4、ofa1930’stypedepression.Governmentleaders,fromPresidentObamaondown,recognizedthis,andtheyauthorizedspendingtrillionsofdollarsonprogramsdesignedtopushbackthetideandgettheshiprightedandbackoncourse.Nooneknowseitherhowwellthestimulusprogramwillworkorhowlo
5、ngitwilltaketogetthingsbackontrack.Still,companieslikeFPL,itssuppliers,retailerswhodependonworkersforsales,andgovernmentswhodependonalloftheabovefortaxrevenuesmustmakedecisionsbasedonpredictionsaboutthefuture.Thischapterobviouslycan’tteachyouhowtosolve
6、theproblemsoftheworld,butitdoessetforthaframeworkformakingcapitalexpendituredecisionsinaworldofuncertainty.Ifcompaniesusetheprocedureswerecommend,thiswillhelpavoidseriousrecessionsinthefuture.423424Part4:ProjectsandTheirValuationCorporateValuation,Cash
7、Flows,andRiskAnalysisWhenweestimateaproject’scashflows(CF)andthenNotetoothatprojectcashflows,onceaprojecthasdiscountthemattheproject’srisk-adjustedcostofcap-beenacceptedandplacedinoperation,areaddedtoital,r,theresultistheproject’sNPV,whichtellsushowthe
8、firm’sfreecashflowsfromothersources.Therefore,muchtheprojectincreasesthefirm’svalue.Thischap-projects’cashflowsessentiallydeterminethefirm’sfreeterfocusesonhowtoestimatethesizeandriskofacashflowsasdiscussedinChapter2andthusformtheprojec
