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1、CaseStudy:ManagingTransactionExposure,LufthansaCorporation,1985InJanuary1985,theGermanairlinecompany,Lufthansa,signedacontractwiththeU.S.Corporation,Boeing,topurchase20Boeing737airplanes.BoeingagreedtodelivertheairplanestoLufthansainoneyearlater,inJanuary1986.Luft
2、hansaagreedtomakeasinglepayment,of$500million,whentheplanesweredelivered.ThespotexchangerateatthetimethecontractwassignedwasDM3.2/$,whichcorrespondedtoadeutschmarkliabilityof1.6billion.BackgroundSince1982,theU.S.dollarhadbeensteadilyappreciatingagainsttheGermanmar
3、k.InJanuary1982,thedollarwastradingaround2.3marks,andbyJanuary1985,ithadrisento3.2.Thisrepresentedanappreciationofthedollarofjustunder40%.AlthoughmanyanalystshadconcludedthattheU.S.dollarwasovervaluedduringthisperiod,itcontinuedtoshowstrength.Governmentinterventio
4、ntoweakenthedollarwasnotbeingdiscussedatthistime.Seechartwhichfollows.IssueWhilemanyforecasterswerepredictinganeventualweakeningintheU.S.dollar,forLufthansa,thesizeofthecontract,whichwasdenominatedinU.S.dollars,wasseenasatoolargeofanuncoveredtransactionexposure.Re
5、commendationWhatwouldyouhaverecommendedthatLufthansado,andwhy?Page
6、3TransactionExposureIssueforLufthansaAsnotedthesizeofthecontract,whichwasdenominatedinU.S.dollars,wasseenasatoolargeofanuncoveredtransactionexposureforLufthansa.Ontheotherhand,mostanalystswerepredi
7、ctingaweakeningoftheU.S.dollar.Ifthisweretooccur,itcouldresultinasmallerdeutschmarkdenominatedpaymentforLufthansa.Recall,Lufthansa’sliabilitywasdenominatedinU.S.dollars,thusaweakeningdollarwouldhaverequiredfewermarks.Lufthansa’sDecisionLufthansadecidedtohedge50%of
8、itsexposurewithaforwardcontract.ThisforwardcontractwassetatDM3.2/$;thusLufthansawouldpurchase$250millioninJanuary1985for800millionmarks.Theremaining50%wasleftuncoveredtotakeadvantageofapossibleweakeningofthedollar.OutcomeDuringthe12monthperiod,theU.S.dollardidweak
9、enagainstthemark.InJanuary1985,itwastradingaround3.2andbyJanuary1986,itwastradingaround2.45.Thisrepresentedadeclineof23%.Seechartbelow.Page
10、3Costofthe20
