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1、4TrendsUnderstandingthePast,Present,andFutureofChina’sEconomicDevelopment---BasedonAUnifiedFrameworkofGrowthTheories*CaiFang(蔡昉)InstituteofPopulationandLaborEconomicsofChineseAcademyofSocialSciences,Beijing,ChinaAbstract:Throughexploringthelimitationoftheneoclassicaltheor
2、yofeconomicgrowth,whichclassifiesgrowthasahomogenousprocess,thispaperreconcilesvarioustheoriesofeconomicdevelopmentandexplainstherisesandfallsofeconomicgrowthunderaunifiedframework,focusingonincentivesoftheaccumulationofphysicalandhumancapital.Thispaperclassifiesinstances
3、ofeconomicgrowthintofourcategories—theMalthusianpovertytrap,theLewisdualmodelofeconomicdevelopment,theLewisturningpoint,andSolowneoclassicalgrowthmodel.ThispaperconductsempiricalanalysisofthesecategoriesofeconomicdevelopmentastheyarerelevanttoChineseeconomicgrowthanddiscu
4、ssespolicyimplicationstherein.Keywords:Needham’sGrandQuestion,economicgrowthtype,greatdivergence,middle-incometrapJELClassification:N30,O11,O571.IntroductionConventionaltheoriesofeconomicgrowthcannotfullyexplainthephenomenonofChinaTheremarkablescaleandspeedofChinesemiracl
5、e.economicdevelopmentfromthelate1970stotheNumeroushypotheseshaveemergedtopresentdaypresentsauniquecaseofmodernprovideexplanationofChina’seconomictransformation.TheuniquequalityofChina’smiraclefromdifferentviewsandtheoreticaljourneypresentschallengestoeconomistsperspective
6、s.However,thetheoriesbehindtheseinterestedinexploringthenatureofeconomicexplanationsareinconsistentandunsatisfactory,developmentandarousescuriosityinthemindsiftheyarejudgedbythefollowingcriteria.First,ofeconomichistoriansandgrowtheconomists.anexplanationofeconomicgrowthsh
7、ouldbeFurther,theeffectofChina’seconomicgrowthbasedonaconsistenttheoreticalframework,ontheworldeconomynecessitatesatheoryofwhichcanexplaintherealitiesofthepastandeconomicdevelopmentwithbroadexplanatoryforecastfutureeventswithsatisfactoryaccuracy.power.Despitethemultitudeo
8、fevolutionarySecond,arobusttheoreticalframeworkcanpathsandsuccessstoriesinthehistoryofglobalecon
