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1、PREFACEThisstudyidentifiesandanalyzesthemajorfactorsdeterminingChina’sgrandstrategy—past,present,andfuture—tobetterunder-standthemotivationsbehindChinesestrategicbehaviorandtoas-sesshowsuchbehaviormightevolveinthefuture,overboththenearandlongterm.Theultimatep
2、urposeofsuchanalysisistomoreclearlyunderstandwhether,andinwhatmanner,China’sgrandstrategymightposefundamentalchallengestoU.S.strategicinter-ests.Thestudywasconductedaspartofalarger,multiyearprojecton“ChineseDefenseModernizationandItsImplicationsfortheU.S.AirF
3、orce.”OtherRANDreportsfromthisprojectinclude:MarkBurles,ChinesePolicyTowardRussiaandtheCentralAsianRepublics,MR-1045-AF,1999.ZalmayM.Khalilzad,AbramN.Shulsky,DanielL.Byman,RogerCliff,DavidT.Orletsky,DavidShlapak,andAshleyJ.Tellis,TheUnitedStatesandaRisingChin
4、a:StrategicandMilitaryImplications,MR-1082-AF,1999.MarkBurlesandAbramN.Shulsky,PatternsinChina’sUseofForce:EvidencefromHistoryandDoctrinalWritings,MR-1160-AF,2000.ThisprojectisconductedintheStrategyandDoctrineProgramofProjectAIRFORCEandwassponsoredbytheDeputy
5、ChiefofStaffforAirandSpaceOperations,Headquarters,U.S.AirForce(AF/XO),andtheDirector,Intelligence,SurveillanceandReconnaissance,iiiivInterpretingChina’sGrandStrategy:Past,Present,andFutureHeadquarters,U.S.AirForce(AF/XOI).Commentsarewelcomeandmaybedirectedtot
6、heauthorsortotheprojectleader,Dr.ZalmayKhalilzad.PROJECTAIRFORCEProjectAIRFORCE,adivisionofRAND,istheAirForcefederallyfundedresearchanddevelopmentcenter(FFRDC)forstudiesandanalysis.ItprovidestheAirForcewithindependentanalysesofpol-icyalternativesaffectingthed
7、evelopment,employment,combatreadiness,andsupportofcurrentandfutureaerospaceforces.Re-searchisperformedinfourprograms:AerospaceForceDevelop-ment;Manpower,Personnel,andTraining;ResourceManagement;andStrategyandDoctrine.MAPS,FIGURES,ANDTABLEMaps1.ChinaandItsSurr
8、oundingAreas................102.China’sHeartland...........................233.China’sPeriphery...........................264a.EarlyHanDynasty..........................414b.LateHanDynasty
