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1、November18,2016SingaporemarketmonitorStillfrosty,andspringmaybefarawayCapitalpreservationtrumpsearningsgrowthAnalystNeelSinhaCumulativerevenueandcoreprofitforourcoverageuniversefellinthe(65)62315838quarterendingSept2016;amodestimprovementinEBITDAmarginwas
2、arguablytheonlybrightspotinthissetofresults.Whilethereissomeneelsinha@maybank-ke.com.sgindicationthatdowngradestoearningsexpectationsmaybeplateauingoverthenextcoupleofquarters,fornowthereislittlevisibilityonwhenCountryIndexvsMSCI(andtowhatextent)agrowthre
3、coverywilloccur–atleastuntilthereisbetterclarityonthedirectionofAsia’sexportsengineandotherglobal3,600800policyvariables.WhiletheSTI1-yearforwardPERofc13xappears3,400750reasonableinhistoricalcontext(5yrav.12.7x),itissoforreasonsofa3,200700lackofgrowthdriv
4、ersandhighexternalmarketvulnerability.OurkeySTRATEGYnear-termpicksareskewedtoapreferenceforcapitalpreservationover3,000650pursuinggrowthoptionsthatmaycarrylowerdefensibility.2,8006002,600550Anotherpoorquarter,althoughmarginsresilient2,400500Revenueandcore
5、profitforourcoverageuniversefellforthethirdNov-14Feb-15May-15Aug-15Nov-15Feb-16May-16Aug-16consecutivequarterat-3.3%and-6.1%,respectively.SequentialEBITDAStraitsTimesIndex-(LHS)MSCIAsiaexJP-(RHS)marginimprovementbyc100bpsfromtheongoingcostmanagementfocusi
6、nthepastyearamongstSingaporecorporateswasthesilverlining,Singaporebutwebelievetheeasygainshavebeenmade.Around4%ofresultsbeatourexpectations,69%wereinlineand27%missed.DowngradeseasingbutrecoveryoutlookmurkySTIearningsexpectationshavebeenonadownwardtrendfor
7、mostofthisyear,butwenotethattheextentofdowngradesinthisquarterhasbeenaquantumlowerthanthosewitnessedintheearlierreportingperiodsof2016andaplateauingislikelyoverthenextcoupleofquarters.Buttheoutlookforareboundisdependentonvariables,suchasthedirectionofSing
8、apore’snon-oilexportsandcurrency,currentlyheldhostagebyexternalfactors,inourview.Stockfocus–fourwelike(plusfourwedon’t)Ourdefensivebiasdrivesourscreeningforfirmswithattributesofoperatinginnon-cyclicalindustries,have
