小程序能成为互联网巨头的重要增长动力

小程序能成为互联网巨头的重要增长动力

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时间:2019-08-08

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1、ChinaInternetSectorCanminiprogramsbecomeasignificantgrowthdriverforInternetgiants?MiniprogramsarecatchingonandcanbecomesignificantrevenuedriversTencentfirstlaunchedminiprogramsinJanuary2017,whicharesimpleappsinWeChatthatuserscanopenwithoutfirstinstalling.ThisuniqueChineseinnovat

2、iongotofftoaslowstart,butplatforms/developersarenowenthusiasticallyadoptingit.TencentandAlibaba/Anteachhaveover200mndailyactiveusers(DAUs)fortheirminiprograms,andBaidu,Bytedance,etc.arelaunchingtheirown.In2019,weestimateWeChatminiprogramswillgenerateRmb12bnofrevenuesfromadsandpa

3、yments(3.1%oftotalrevenue),andthatcouldgrow5xby2022(7.5%oftotal).WeseepotentialupsideforAntinAlipayandBaiduinsearchandfeed.MiniprogramscanhelpdevelopersacquireuserscheaplyandboostusageFormid-tolow-frequencyusecases,miniprogramsareagoodwayfordeveloperstoreachusers(e.g.Tongcheng-e

4、Longintravel),especiallyascustomeracquisitioncosts(CAC)forappssoar.OurindustrychecksindicateCACforminiprogramscanbeaslowas1/10ofapps.Forhighfrequencyusecases,WeChatminiprogramscanimproveengagement,leveragingsocialconnections(e.g.Pinduoduoine-commerce).InWeChat,usersonaverageuse1

5、0miniprograms(+2.9%YoY)andspendover15minsperday.Gamesarethemostpopularusecase,followedbylifeservicesandshopping.Tencent:miniprogramsareunderappreciatedadsandpaymentsdriversWeestimateTencentcangenerateRmb4bnofrevenuesfromminiprogrampaymentsin2019or6%ofitsFintechandBusinessService

6、s(FBS)revenuesbasedonnewtopdownindustryandbottomupapps/companyanalyses.By2022,weexpectrevenuestoincrease~3xtoRmb11bn,andseeRmb18.5bninrevenuesinourupsidecase.WeestimateanotherRmb8bnofrevenuesfromminiprogramadsor11%oftotaladrevenuesin2019.By2022,weseepotentialrevenuesofRmb45bnor3

7、3%oftotaladrevenues.WebelieveminiprogramshavesurpassedofficialaccountstobecomethesecondlargestadproductinTencent,behindMoments.AlibabaandBaidu:significantgrowthopportunitiesfromminiprogramsAntcanleverageminiappstoimproveitsAlipayusecases,andAlibabauseittogivebrands,merchants,pro

8、ductcategoriesmoreexposure,andinenterprisescena

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