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1、26September2013AsiaPacific/ChinaEquityResearchConsumerInternetCtrip.comInternational(CTRP.OQ/CTRPUS)RatingOUTPERFORM*[V]Price(24Sep13,US$)51.36INITIATIONTargetprice(US$)60.00¹Upside/downside(%)16.8Mktcap(US$mn)6,665(US$6,665)Marginsexpansiontocomesooner,n
2、otlaterEnterprisevalue(Rmbmn)33,703Numberofshares(mn)129.77■InitiatingcoveragewithOUTPERFORM.WeinitiatecoverageonCtripwithFreefloat(%)97.0anOUTPERFORMratingandDCF-basedtargetpriceofUS$60(10-year52-weekpricerange51.4-16.8ADTO-6M(US$mn)18.9DCFassumption,WAC
3、Cof12%),implying16.8%potentialupside.We*StockratingsarerelativetothecoverageuniverseineachexpectCtriptosee22%long-termrevenuegrowthrateover2017-2023.Ouranalyst'soreachteam'srespectivesector.TPimplies41.7xFY13E,29.7xFY14E,22.1xFY15E,dilutedadjustedP/E.¹Tar
4、getpriceisfor12months.[V]=Stockconsideredvolatile(seeDisclosureAppendix).■Ctrip'sexpandedproductofferingstocaptureoutboundandleisureResearchAnalyststravel.Overthepastfewquarters,CtriphasexpandeditsrangeofproductsDickWeiofferingthatcaterstotheneedsofprice-
5、sensitiveleisuretravellers,aswell85221017339asitscorebusinesstravellers.Widerrangeofservices,suchasopen-dick.wei@credit-suisse.complatform,group-buy&pre-paidhotels,andticketsforattractions,enhanceEvanZhou85221016745userstickinessanddrivehighergrowth.Ctrip
6、’soutboundtravelproductsevan.zhou@credit-suisse.comdifferentiatefromitscompetitors,givenitstechnologyandcooperationwithinternationalhotelsandGDS.■Mobiletransitiontoaccelerateonlinetravelpenetration.CtriptravelappnowistheNo.1mobileappinthetravelsegmentinCh
7、inaintermsoftransactionvalue.In2Q13,20%ofhotelbookingand15%ofticketbookingtransactionsweremadefrommobiles.Withbettermobilebookingenvironment,Ctriplikelycanacceleratetravelbookingfromofflinetoonline.Ctripislikelytoseemarginsleveragewithhigherratioofbooking
8、frommobile.■Marginsexpansioncouldcomesoonerthanlater.Ctrip’sadjustedOPMdeclinedfrom+40%in2011toabottomof21%in4Q12.Ctrip’sOPMhasincreasedoverthepasttwoquartersto25%level.Weexpectastablecompetitiveenvironment,Ctrip'sh
