ATHM - Credit Suisse

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1、15April2014AsiaPacific/ChinaEquityResearchConsumerInternetAutohomeInc.(ATHM.N/ATHMUS)RatingNEUTRAL*[V]Price(14Apr14,US$)33.94INITIATIONTargetprice(US$)36.00¹Upside/downside(%)6.1AcomprehensiveautoverticalinevolutionMktcap(US$mn)3,568(US$3,568)Enterprisevalue(Rmbmn)18,8

2、88Numberofshares(mn)105.14■InitiatingcoveragewithNEUTRALratingandatargetpriceofUS$36.Freefloat(%)26.8WhilewelikeAutohome'sorganictrafficstrengthandvaluableUGC52-weekpricerange51.8-27.1resourcescomparedtootherautoverticalportals,webelievethecurrentADTO-6M(US$mn)3.4valua

3、tionfairlyreflectsitssuperiorleadershipqualityandportaluser*Stockratingsarerelativetothecoverageuniverseineachanalyst'soreachteam'srespectivesector.experience,andthestockmayhavelimitedupsideuntilthere'sameaningful¹Targetpriceisfor12months.[V]=Stockconsideredvolatile(se

4、eDisclosureAppendix).breakthroughinautoeCommerce.ResearchAnalysts■LeadingplayerintheChinaautoverticalportalspace.AutohomeistheEvanZhouleadingplayerintheChinaautoverticalportalspaceintermsofoverall85221016745trafficanduserengagement.Itenjoystheleadingpositioninautoverti

5、calevan.zhou@credit-suisse.comonlineadsandisworkinghardtoboostitsdealershipplatformsegment.OnDickWeitheadvertisingside,anupsidefromhigherspendonautoadvertisingis85221017339dick.wei@credit-suisse.comlimitedforAutohomeandgrowthshouldcomefromfurtherARPUincrease.Contributi

6、onbyOnthedealershipplatformside,weexpectthecompanytoexperience54%DanielChen&DavidSunCAGRoverthenexttwoyears,closingthegapfurtherwithBitautointhissegment.AutohomeisalsoexperimentingwithfacilitatingautoeCommercetransactionsbyintroducingsaleseventswithattractivediscountst

7、ousers.■Catalysts.(1)furtherdealershippenetrationinlower-tiercities;(2)furtherprogressineCommerceinitiatives;(3)higher-than-expectedChinapassengervehiclemarketvolumegrowth.Risks:(1)potentialmargindownsidefromhigherinvestmentandcompetition;(2)lowmanagementownershipinthe

8、company.■Expect38%EPSCAGRoverthenexttwoyears.Ourtargetpriceisbasedon25x2015EP/E,onthebackofourestimateofa38%EPSCAGRov