Mann-kendall和Sen趋势分析算法介绍

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1、GlobalandPlanetaryChange100(2013)172–182ContentslistsavailableatSciVerseScienceDirectGlobalandPlanetaryChangejournalhomepage:www.elsevier.com/locate/gloplachaAnalysisofchangesinmeteorologicalvariablesusingMann-KendallandSen'sslopeestimatorstatisticaltestsinSerbiaMilanGocic⁎,Sl

2、avisaTrajkovicFacultyofCivilEngineeringandArchitecture,UniversityofNis,A.Medvedeva14,18000Nis,SerbiaarticleinfoabstractArticlehistory:TheannualandseasonaltrendsofsevenmeteorologicalvariableswereanalyzedfortwelveweatherstationsReceived16February2012inSerbiaduring1980–2010.Theno

3、n-parametricMann-KendallandSen'smethodswereusedtodetermineAccepted21October2012whethertherewasapositiveornegativetrendinweatherdatawiththeirstatisticalsignificance.Theoccur-Availableonline26October2012renceofabruptchangeswasdetectedusingcumulativesumchartsandbootstrapping.Inthe

4、presentstudy,theincreasingtrendswereindicatedinbothannualandseasonalminimumandmaximumairtemperatures'Keywords:series.Therelativehumiditydecreasedsignificantlyinsummerandautumn,whilethevaporpressurehadameteorologicalvariablestrendanalysissignificantincreasingtrendinspring,summera

5、ndautumn.Besides,nosignificanttrendsweredetectedinMann-Kendalltestsummerandwinterprecipitationseries.Ingeneral,theresultsofusingtheMann-KendallandSen'stestsSen'sslopeestimatordemonstratedthegoodagreementofperformanceindetectionofthetrendformeteorologicalvariables.©2012ElsevierB

6、.V.Allrightsreserved.1.IntroductionInSwitzerland,Ceppietal.(2012)performedthetrendanalysisoftemperaturesfrom1959to2008,usinga2×2kmgriddeddataset.Climatechangeisreferredtoaslargevariationsinclimateaver-Theyfoundthattheseasonaltrendsareallpositiveandmostlysignif-ageswhichexistfo

7、rdecadesorevenlongerperiods.Althoughclimateicantwithanannualaveragewarmingrateof0.35°C/decade.changeoccurredonaglobalscale,itsimpactsoftenvaryfromregionTrendsofstreamflowintheTarimRiverBasinduringthepasttoregion(TrajkovicandKolakovic,2009).Therefore,theanalysisof50yearsareanaly

8、zedbyTaoetal.(2011).Theresultsindicatedchangesinmeteorologica