股票外汇技术分析英

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1、BeyondtheFundamentals;TechnicalAnalysisFIN40500:InternationalFinanceFundamentalanalysisfocusesoneconomic/financialtheoryandvariouseconomicindicatorstoexplainmarketmovementsTradeBalanceApproachMonetaryApproachInterestRateApproachPriceLevelApproachChart

2、AnalysisQuantitativeMethodsTechnicalanalysisisnotconcernedwiththecausesofmarketmovements.Instead,technicalanalysisfocusesonthemovementsthemselves.Isthereinformationinpastpricemovementsthatcanbeusedtopredictfuturemovements?Theforecastingequationforatec

3、hnicalanalysiswouldbesomethinglikethis$/Euro:Weeklydataover3yearsChartanalysisbeginswithatimeseriesplotofanasset’spriceChartscanbehourly,daily,weekly,etc.Higherfrequencydatawillbemoredetailed,butnoisierAchartistlooksforpatternsinthetoidentifyresistanc

4、e(upperbounds)andsupportlevels(lowerbounds)OldSupportlevelNewSupportlevelA“breakout”indicatesanewpatternformingConnecttwoconsecutivehighstogettheupperchannelAparallellinethrougharecentlowbecomesthelowersupportBullishchannelstendtohaveupwardbreakoutsFi

5、ndthetrendbyconnectingatleasttwohighsTwolowscompletethetriangle“Breakout”occursattheapex,usuallywithincreasingvolumeAscendingtrianglesusuallyhaveupwardbreakoutsTwolowsidentifythe“leadin”trendThe“Run”:AbreakoutfromtheleadintrendThe“Bump”:Increaseintren

6、dbymorethan50%Twolowsidentifythe“leadin”trendTheleftshoulderisthefirsthighabovethecurrenttrendTheheadisthefirstadvancepasttheleftshoulderTherightshoulderisthefirsthighfollowingthereversalThenecklineconnectsthetwoshouldersandindicateslowersupportWhatpa

7、tterndoyousee?“Bump”“Run”Fibonacci,oneofthegreatestmathematiciansofalltimediscoveredasequenceofnumberswhicharenowusedacrossmanydisciplines1MonthOnePair(Y)NowOnePair(M)2MonthsTwoPair(M,Y)3MonthsThreePairs(M,M,Y)Y=Young,M=MatureSupposethatyoubeginwithap

8、airofrabbits:Rabbitstakeonemonthtomature.Oncemature,theycanbreedoffspringOffspringcomeinpairs(onemaleandonefemale).ApairofoffspringareborneachmonthTherabbitsneverdieCanyoufindthePattern?EachnumberintheFibonaccisequenceisthesumoftheprevioustwo1