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1、SystemDynamicsModelingforProjectManagementJohnD.StermanDirector,SystemDynamicsGroupSloanSchoolofManagementMassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyCambridgeMA02139617/253-1951(voice)617/258-7579(fax)Copyright©1992JohnD.Sterman2I.SystemDynamicsModelsforProjectManagementProjectmanagementisatonceo
2、neofthemostimportantandmostpoorlyunderstoodareasofmanagement.Delaysandcostoverrunsaretheruleratherthantheexceptioninconstruction,defense,powergeneration,aerospace,productdevelopment,software,andotherareas.Projectmanagementsuffersfromnumerousproblemsofcostingandscheduling.Costoverrunsof10
3、0to200%arecommon.Projectsareoftendelayedtothepointwherethemarketconditionsforwhichtheyweredesignedhavechanged.Manyprojectssufferfromthe"90%syndrome"inwhichaprojectisthoughttobe90%completeforhalfthetotaltimerequired.Projectmanagementisoftencounterintuitive.Forexample,softwaredevelopmentof
4、tensuffersfromBrooks'Law,whichstates"addingresourcestoalateprojectmakesitevenlater".Customerdesignchangesarefrequent,generatingcostlyrippleeffectswhichcreatedelayanddisruptionthroughoutanentireorganization.Projectsoftenappeartobegoingsmoothlyuntilneartheend,whenerrorsmadeearlierarediscov
5、ered,necessitatingcostlyrework,expediting,overtime,hiring,scheduleslippage,orreductionsinprojectscopeorquality.Theconsequencesofthesedifficultiesincludepoorprofitability,lossofmarketshareandreputation,increasedturnoverofmanagementandworkforce,lowerproductivity,highercosts,and,alltoofrequ
6、ently,divisiveandcostlylitigationbetweencustomersandcontractorsoverresponsibilityforoverrunsanddelays.Thispaperdescribesinbrieftheuseofsystemdynamicsmodelingformanagementoflargescaleprojects,includinglargescaleengineeringandconstructionprojects.Systemdynamicshasrepeatedlybeendemonstrated
7、tobeaneffectiveanalyticaltoolinawidevarietyofsituations,bothacademicandpractical,andiscurrentlybeingusedbyanumberofcorporations,includingFortune500firms,bothintheUnitedStatesandworldwide.Manyoftheapplicationsofsystemdynamics,inbothacademicresearchandconsulting,involvetheq
