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1、Econometrica,Vol.81,No.4(July,2013),13951454MODELINGEARNINGSDYNAMICSBYJOSEPHG.ALTONJI,ANTHONYA.SMITH,JR.,ANDIVANVIDANGOS1Inthispaper,weuseindirectinferencetoestimateajointmodelofearnings,em-ployment,jobchanges,wagerates,andworkhoursoveracareer.Weusethemodeltoaddressanu
2、mberofimportantquestionsinlaboreconomics,includingthesourceoftheexperienceprofileofwages,theresponseofjobchangestooutsidewageoffers,andtheeffectsofseniorityonjobchanges.Wealsostudythedynamicresponseofwagerates,hours,andearningstovariousshocks,andmeasuretherelativecontri
3、butionsoftheshockstothevarianceofearningsinagivenyearandoveralifetime.Wefindthathumancapitalaccountsformostofthegrowthofearningsoveracareer,althoughjobseniorityandjobmobilityalsoplaysignificantroles.Unemploymentshockshavealargeimpactonearningsintheshortrun,aswellasasubst
4、antiallong-termeffectthatoperatesthroughthewagerate.Shocksassociatedwithjobchangesandunemploy-mentmakealargecontributiontothevarianceofcareerearningsandoperatemostlythroughthejob-specificerrorcomponentsofwagesandhours.KEYWORDS:Wagegrowth,jobmobility,unemployment,inequal
5、ity,indirectinfer-ence.1.INTRODUCTIONINTHISPAPER,WEBUILDANDESTIMATEAMODELOFEARNINGS.Wehavethreemaingoals.Thefirstistoadvancetheliteratureinlaboreconomicsonhowemployment,hours,wages,andearningsaredeterminedoveracareer.Weexaminetheeffectsofeducation,race,experience,employ
6、mentduration,jobtenureandunobservedheterogeneity,employmentshocks,shockstogen-eralskills,anddrawsofnewjobopportunitiesofferingdifferenthoursandwages.Wetraceouttheresponseofwages,hours,andearningstothevariousshocksanddeterminethechannelsthroughwhichtheyoperate.Ouranalys
7、isaddressesanumberoflong-standingquestionsinlaboreconomics.Forexam-ple,weprovideestimatesoftherelativeimportanceofgeneralskillaccumula-1WearegratefultoRichardBlundell,MaryDaly,RasmusLentz,CostasMeghir,PaulOyer,LuigiPistaferri,andthreeanonymousrefereesforhelpfuldiscussi
8、onsandsuggestions,andtoLenaYemelyanovforexcellentresearchassistance.WealsothankparticipantsinseminarsattheBankofSpain
