Probability and Risk of Slope Failure

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1、ProbabilityandRiskofSlopeFailure123FranciscoSilva,M.ASCE;T.WilliamLambe,Hon.M.ASCE;andW.AllenMarr,F.ASCEAbstract:Thispaperaimstodemystifytheuseofriskassessmentasadecisionmanagementtoolandpresentamethodologythatplacesquantitativeriskassessmentwithinreachofeverygeotechn

2、icalengineer,evenforroutineengineeringassignments.Inparticular,weproposeusingquantiÞcationofexpertjudgment
i.e.,subjectiveprobabilitiesasapracticalalternativefordeterminingprobabilityofslopefailure.Thewriterspresentasemiempiricalrelationshipbetweenfactorofsafetyandan

3、nualprobabilityoffailurethatpermitsestimationofslopefailureprobabilitieswithrelativelymodesteffort.ThecasestudyforatailingsdamshowsthatriskassessmentbasedonquantiÞcationofexpertjudgmentprovidesaframeworktoarriveatrationalmanagementandengineeringdecisionsrelatedtodamsa

4、fetyandothergeotechnicalproblems.Usingthesemiempiricalrelationshippresentedhere,practicingengineerscanusethishelpfultoolbyapplyingtheircurrentskills.DOI:10.1061/
ASCE1090-0241
2008134:12
1691CEDatabasesubjectheadings:Decisionmaking;Riskmanagement;Soilerosion;Probab

5、ility;Slopestability;Tailings;Dams,earth;Damsafety.Introductiondonecorrectly.Theengineershouldfocushiseffortonobtainingarepresentativegeometry
surfaceandsubsurfaceandcorrectlyThispaperpresentsariskassessmentmethodologythewritersusedeÞningporepressuresandstrength.inth

6、epracticeofgeotechnicalengineering.ThismethodologyhasThispapermovesbeyondthedeterminationofsafetyfactorto:evolvedoverthelast30yearsinresponsetoclientÕsneedsfor1.MorefullyunderstandthesigniÞcanceoflevelofsafety;quantiÞedriskassessmentsataffordablecosts.Ownersand2.Descr

7、ibeapracticalmethodofrisk-baseddecisionmakingoperatorsofindustrialfacilitiesunderstandtheconceptofrisk.forsituationsinvolvingslopefailures;andRiskconceptsandriskmanagementformpartofmany3.Illustratethatgeotechnicalengineershaveallthenecessarymanagementprograms.Theseown

8、ersandoperatorsexpectskillstoperformtheserisk-basedanalysesthroughanengineerstoprovideprobabilityandriskdatatohelpthemmakeex