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1、MoreEducationorMoreWorkingExperience?BestStrategyforIncomeandWealthMaximizationBinleiGongRiceUniversityAbstractThisarticleelucidatesthebeststrategyforchoosingpersonaleducationlevelsandtheexpectationofincomeandwealththatfollow.InspiredbyMincer’searningequat
2、ionandHeckman’soptionvalue,thispaperevaluatestheexpectedlifetimeincomeforChineseresidentswithdifferentlevelsofeducation.Then,agametreeofChina’seducationsystemisintroducedtoestimatetheoverallvalueofeducation,whichsuggestsanoptimalchoiceofschooling.Moreover,
3、aMonte-CarloSimulationisusedtopredicttheeducation,incomeandwealthdistributionsinChina.Finally,thesimulateddistributionsarecomparedwiththenationaldatatoseeifthebenefitsaresignificantwhenheterogeneouspeopleallmakeoptimaldecisions.KeyWords:IncomeandWealth;Sem
4、i-parametricEarningRegression;ReturntoEducation;GameTheoryJELCode:D31O15C70I.IntroductionEducationchoices,suchaswhetherhighschoolgraduatesapplyforuniversity,junior/communitycollege,orstartworking,areimportantdecisionsthataffectone’sfuturejob,earnings,andne
5、tworking.Forsocietyasawhole,theeducationdecisionsofallitsmembersdeterminethelaborproductivityandthestructureoftheeconomy.Sincehigherearningsarethevitalincentivetoinvestinhumancapital,economictheoryassumesthatagentschoosetheireducationleveltomaximizetheirpr
6、esentvalueoflifetimeincome.Therefore,thefinancialreturnofeducationisapopulartopicandbeingstudiedbymanylaboreconomists(MincerandPolachek1974;Schultz1960;Griliches1977).Earningsregressions,asthecenteroflaboreconomics,arewidelyusedtoexploretheserewardstoeduca
7、tion.ThemostpopulartypeofearningsregressionisMincer’smodel,whichtypicallyregressestheearningsonschooling,controllingforworkexperienceandotherfactors.ThecoefficientofschoolinginthisregressionisMincer’srateofreturntoeducationandcanbecomparedwiththeinterestra
8、tetodeterminetheoptimalityofhumancapitalinvestments.Inpractice,scholarsusuallyusecurrentearningsasaproxyforlifetimeearningsduetothelackofaccessiblelifetimeearningsdata.However,thisempiricalsimplificationiscri
