Reliability of Deteriorating Slopes

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1、ReliabilityofDeterioratingSlopes12RaymondW.M.Cheung,M.ASCE,andWilsonH.Tang,Hon.M.ASCEAbstract:Theeffectofdeteriorationonthereliabilityofslopesofvariousserviceperiodshasseldombeenconsideredexplicitlyinthecurrentreliabilityapproachinslopeengineering.Constantannualfailureprobabilities,

2、thatarecommonlyusedinpracticetoevaluatereliabilityofaslopeoveragivenexpectedserviceperiod,maynotbecapableofcapturingthedeterioratingcharacteristicsofslopes.Thispaperpresentsaproceduretomodelprobabilisticallythedeterioratingeffectonthefailureprobabilitywithtime.Pastperformanceofgeote

3、chnicalsystemsofsimilarnatureissystematicallyanalyzedtoevaluatethefailureprobabilitiesforsystemsofdifferentagesandfordifferentexpectedserviceperiods.ThemethodwasappliedtothestabilityperformanceofsoilcutslopesinHongKong.Throughthisexercise,thereliabilityofslopesofdifferentagesfordiff

4、erentfutureserviceperiodscanbereasonablyestimated.Assuch,aplannercanbenchmarkadesignstandardandplanaslopeimprovementprograminamoreeffectiveanddefensibleway.DOI:10.1061/~ASCE!1090-0241~2005!131:5~589!CEDatabasesubjectheadings:Reliability;Slopestability;Deterioration;Failures.Introduc

5、tionfunctionofaslope,thefocusisusuallyplacedonmodelingthevariabilityofspatialsoilstrength,pore-waterpressure,externalGeotechnicalengineershavebeenfamiliarwithmakingdecisionsloads,andgeometricvariables.Theimportanceofotherfactorsinsituationsinvolvinguncertaintiesandrisk.Amongthevario

6、usthatwouldleadtodeteriorationofaslopeanditsperformanceapproaches,reliabilityanalysisisrenownedasamorerationalmaybeacknowledged.Yet,theirin¯uencesonslopestabilityareandsystematicmethodindealingwithuncertainties.Formalreli-notfullyunderstoodordif®culttobemodeled.Thesefactorsincludede

7、gradationofslopesurfacecover,blockageanddamageabilityanalyseshaveevolvedintoapracticaltoolthatsupple-ofsurfaceandsubsurfacedrainagesystems,reductionofsoilmentsadeterministicapproachinthedecision-makingprocess.shearstrengthduetoweatheringofslopeformingmaterialsandLacasseandNadim~1998

8、!gavesomecasestudie