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1、ManagerialReport1.Basedonthesalesforecaster’sprediction,weknowthatX,thedemandofteddy,followsNormalDistribution,anditsmean,μ=20000,P(Z<30000-20000σ)–P(Z<10000-20000σ)=0.95So,weknowthat10000/σ=1.96,thenthestandarddeviation,σ=5102.04.X~N(20000,5102.042)2.Theprobabilityofstock-outfororderquanti
2、tiesof15000:P(X>15000)=P(Z>15000-200005102.04)=1-(Z<15000-200005102.04)=1-P(Z<-0.98)=P(Z<0.98)=0.8365Theprobabilityofstock-outfororderquantitiesof18000:P(X>18000)=P(Z>18000-200005102.04)=1-(Z<18000-200005102.04)=1-P(Z<-0.39)=P(Z<0.39)=0.6517Theprobabilityofstock-outfororderquantitiesof24000
3、:P(X>24000)=P(Z>24000-200005102.04)=1-(Z<24000-200005102.04)=1-P(Z<0.78)=0.2177Theprobabilityofstock-outfororderquantitiesof28000:P(X>28000)=P(Z>28000-200005102.04)=1-(Z<28000-200005102.04)=1-P(Z<1.57)=0.05723.Profit=Revenue–CostØFororderquantitiesof15000Worstcase:Revenue=$10000*24+(15000-1
4、0000)*5=$265,000Cost=15000*16=$240,000Profit=$25000Mostlikelycase:Revenue=$15000*24=$360,000Cost=15000*16=$240,000Profit=$120,000Bestcase:Revenue=$15000*24=$360,000Cost=15000*16=$240,000Profit=$120,000ØFororderquantitiesof18000Worstcase:Revenue=$10000*24+(18000-10000)*5=$280,000Cost=18000*1
5、6=$288,000Profit=-$8,000Mostlikelycase:Revenue=$18000*24=$432,000Cost=18000*16=$288,000Profit=$144,000Bestcase:Revenue=$18000*24=$432,000Cost=18000*16=$288,000Profit=$144,000ØFororderquantitiesof24000Worstcase:Revenue=$10000*24+(24000-10000)*5=$310,000Cost=24000*16=$384,000Profit=-$74,000Mo
6、stlikelycase:Revenue=$20000*24+(24000-20000)*5=$500,000Cost=24000*16=$384,000Profit=$116,000Bestcase:Revenue=$24000*24=$576,000Cost=24000*16=$384,000Profit=$192,000ØFororderquantitiesof28000Worstcase:Revenue=$10000*24+(28000-10000)*5=$330,000Cost=28000*16=$448,000Profit=-$118,000Mostlikelyc
7、ase:Revenue=$20000*24+(28000-20000)*5=$520,000Cost=28000*16=$448000Profit=$72,000Bestcase:Revenue=$28000*24=$672,000Cost=28000*16=$448,000Profit=$224,0004.P(X
