9 Value-added trade and business cycle synchronization

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1、JournalofInternationalEconomics99(2016)251–262ContentslistsavailableatScienceDirectJournalofInternationalEconomicsjournalhomepage:www.elsevier.com/locate/jieValue-addedtradeandbusinesscyclesynchronization☆a,⁎,NanLiabaRomainDuval,RichaSaraf,DulaniSeneviratneaInternationalMonetaryFund,WashingtonDC

2、,UnitedStatesbUniversityatAlbany,SUNY,NY,UnitedStatesarticleinfoabstractArticlehistory:EversinceFrankelandRose's(1998)seminalpaper,theliteratureontradeandbusinesscyclesynchronizationReceived26September2014hasreliedongrosstradedata,withweakresultsinrecentpapersthatcarefullyaddressomittedvariableb

3、ias.Receivedinrevisedform21October2015Thispaperre-examinesthisrelationshipusingnewvalue-addedtradedatafor63advancedandemergingecon-Accepted2November2015omiesduring1995–2013.Inapanelframework,weidentifyasignificantlypositiveimpactofbilateral(value-Availableonline10November2015added)tradeintensityo

4、nbusinesscyclesynchronization—controllingforglobalcommonshocks,country-pairheterogeneityandothercovariates—thatisabsentwhengrosstradedataareused.ThereisalsosomeevidenceKeywords:Businesscyclesynchronizationthattheimpactofvalue-addedtradeonsynchronizationincreaseswiththedegreeof(value-added)intra-

5、Valueaddedtradeindustrytrade.Weprovideatheoreticalrationalefortheroleofvalue-addedtradeforsynchronizationusingaTradeIntegrationsimpleinternationalbusinesscyclemodelthatfeaturescross-countryinputlinkagesinproduction.©2015ElsevierB.V.Allrightsreserved.1.Introductionsupply-chainnetworksacrosstheglo

6、be.Oncesuchsupply-chainlink-agesareaccountedforandtradeintegrationismeasuredusingvaluedTherelationshipbetweentradeintegrationandbusinesscyclesyn-addedratherthangrosstradedata—usingnewlyconstructedannualchronization(BCS)hasbeensubjecttoextensiveresearch,motivateddataextendingtheOECD-WTOTradeinVal

7、ueAdded(TiVA)dataset—aingoodpartbytheoptimumcurrencyarealiterature(OCA)thatwaspositive,highlysignificantandrobusteffectoftradeintensityonBCSispioneeredbyMundell(1961)andMcKinnon(1963)andgivennewim-restoredforasampleof63countr