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1、1TheBullwhipEffectInSupplyChainsHauLLee,VPadmanabhan,andSeungjinWhang;SloanManagementReview,Spring1997,Volume38,Issue3,pp.93-102Abstract:Thebullwhipeffectoccurswhenthedemandordervariabilitiesinthesupplychainareamplifiedastheymovedupthesupplychain.Distortedinform
2、ationfromoneendofasupplychaintotheothercanleadtotremendousinefficiencies.Companiescaneffectivelycounteractthebullwhipeffectbythoroughlyunderstandingitsunderlyingcauses.Industryleadersareimplementinginnovativestrategiesthatposenewchallenges:1.integratingnewinform
3、ationsystems,2.definingneworganizationalrelationships,and3.implementingnewincentiveandmeasurementsystems.Distortedinformationfromoneendofasupplychaintotheothercanleadtotremendousinefficiencies:excessiveinventoryinvestment,poorcustomerservice,lostrevenues,misguid
4、edcapacityplans,inactivetransportation,andmissedproductionschedules.Howdoexaggeratedorderswingsoccur?Whatcancompaniesdotomitigatethem?Notlongago,logisticsexecutivesatProcter&Gamble(P&G)examinedtheorderpatternsforoneoftheirbest-sellingproducts,Pampers.Itssalesatr
5、etailstoreswerefluctuating,butthevariabilitieswerecertainlynotexcessive.However,astheyexaminedthedistributors'orders,theexecutivesweresurprisedbythedegreeofvariability.WhentheylookedatP&G'sordersofmaterialstotheirsuppliers,suchas3M,theydiscoveredthattheswingswer
6、eevengreater.Atfirstglance,thevariabilitiesdidnotmakesense.Whiletheconsumers,inthiscase,thebabies,consumeddiapersatasteadyrate,thedemandordervariabilitiesinthesupplychainwereamplifiedastheymovedupthesupplychain.P&Gcalledthisphenomenonthe"bullwhip"effect.(Insomei
7、ndustries,itisknownasthe"whiplash"orthe"whipsaw"effect.)WhenHewlett-Packard(HP)executivesexaminedthesalesofoneofitsprintersatamajorreseller,theyfoundthattherewere,asexpected,somefluctuationsovertime.However,whentheyexaminedtheordersfromthereseller,theyobservedmu
8、chbiggerswings.Also,totheirsurprise,theydiscoveredthattheordersfromtheprinterdivisiontothecompany'sintegratedcircuitdivisionhadevengreaterfluctuations.Whathappenswhen
