SinoTERM, a multi-regional CGE model of China

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1、ChinaEconomicReview19(2008)628–634ContentslistsavailableatScienceDirectChinaEconomicReviewSinoTERM,amulti-regionalCGEmodelofChinaMarkHORRIDGE,GlynWITTWER⁎CentreofPolicyStudies,MonashUniversity3800,Victoria,AustraliaarticleinfoabstractArticlehistory:Thepaperoutlinesthetheoryanddatabasepre

2、parationofSinoTERM,a“bottom-up”computableReceived27August2007generalequilibriummodeloftheChineseeconomy.ThemethodologybywhichweconstructtheReceivedinrevisedform12May2008multi-regionalmodelallowsustopresenttheeconomyofChinainanunprecedentedamountofAccepted21May2008detail.SinoTERMcoversall

3、31provincesandmunicipalities.Thedatabaseofthemodelextendsthepublishednationalinput–outputtablefor2002to137sectors.ThesinglecropssectorintheJelclassification:publishednationalinput–outputtableissplitinto11andthesinglelivestocksectorintothree.C68Themulti-regionalCGEmodelprovidesaframeworkth

4、atwecouldmodifytoapplytomanyR13L74differentpolicyapplications.WecanuseSinoTERMtoanalysetheregionaleconomicimpactsofregion-specificshocks.Suchshockscouldmajorconstructionprojectsorinvestmentsinhealthandeducationsectors,inanefforttoaccelerateeconomicgrowthinthelagginginlandprovinces.Keyword

5、s:Weusea63sector,10regionaggregationoftheSinoTERMmasterdatabasetomodeltheCGEmodelingregionaleconomicimpactsoftheconstructionoftheChongqing–Lichuanraillink.Regionalmodeling©2008ElsevierInc.Allrightsreserved.Constructionprojects1.IntroductionTheregionalimplicationsofeconomicreformareanincr

6、easinglyimportantquestionforChina.InMarch2006,theNationalPeople'sCongressofChinaapprovedafive-yearplantotacklethewealthgapbetweencitiesandthecountryside.LiChong'an,aNationalPeople'sCongressdeputy,notedashiftinpolicyfrom“urbandevelopmentandheavyinvestment...toincreasingruraland1sci-techinv

7、estmentintheinterestofsustainabledevelopment.”Recentpoliciesproposedincludeprovidingfreecompulsoryprimaryeducationinruralregionsandincreasingfarminvestment(WorldBank,2005).WithgrowingpolicyconcernssurroundingeconomicinequalitiesbetweentheregionsofChina,ageneralequilibrium