Chinese Property Bond Primer 2014

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1、ChinaPropertyDevelopers–HY&HGPrimerGlobalEmergingMarkets

2、CorporateCredit

3、Asia

4、China06January2014ChinesePropertyBondPrimerCreditresearchJoyceLiang+85225363817Chinesepropertyoffshorebond–aUS$50bnsectorResearchAnalystMerrillLynch(HongKong)Sinceinceptionin2005,th

5、eChinesepropertyoffshorebondhasgrownrapidlytoajoyce.liang@baml.commarkettotalingUS$50bnfrom47issuerswithagoodrepayment/refinancingtrackSunnyTam,CFA+85225363446record.High-yield(HY)propertyissuancedominatesthesectorwithasizeofResearchAnalystMerrillLynch(HongKon

6、g)US$41bnor82%ofthesector,andhasbecomeasignificantpartoftheHYmarketsunny.tam@baml.cominAsia(41%),inemergingmarkets(10%)andglobally(2%).UnderpinnedbyaChinaEconomicsresearchmorestablecreditprofileandamoreproventrackrecordinrefinancingandTingLu+85225363718redempt

7、ion,thesectorhasbeengraduallyre-rated,reboundingfromthelowsatChinaEconomistend-2011aftertheEuropeandebtcrisis.WithanaverageYTWof8.8%for2.7MerrillLynch(HongKong)years,thesectorstillprovidesdecentpick-upoverotherregions–1.2%overEM,ting.lu@baml.com2%overrestofAsi

8、aand3%overGlobaldespiteoneyearshorterduration.ChinaPropertyResearchRaymondNgai,CFA>>+85225363987Chinesepropertymarket–12%ofGDPResearchAnalystUnlikeindevelopedcountries,thehistoryoftheprivatepropertymarketinChinaisMerrillLynch(HongKong)raymond.ngai@baml.comrath

9、ershort,startingonlyfrom1998whentheHousingReformwascompleted.WithMatthewChow,CFA>>+85221617877rapidgrowth,ithasbecomeaUS$1trnmarket,contributing12%ofoverallGDPResearchAnalystgrowthinChina.Whileinvestmentdemandstillexists,itsimportancehasdeclinedMerrillLynch(Ho

10、ngKong)materiallyaftertheimplementationofaseriesoftighteningmeasuressincelatematthew.chow@baml.com2010.WebelievesaleshavesincebeendrivenprimarilybyunderlyingdemandwithChinafinancialsresearchlimitedbuilt-upofcompletedandunsoldinventory.WeestimatethepotentialWin

11、nieWu>>+85225363058underlyingdemandforhousingtobe934mnsqmperyeartill2023,drivenbybabyResearchAnalystMerrillLynch(HongKong)boomers,marriageandincreasingurbanization.This,togetherwit