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3、China12July2013“LiKeqiangPut”?Yes,“Liqonomics”?NotyetTingLu+85225363718ChinaEconomistMerrillLynch(HongKong)¢Nowwehavethe“LiKeqiangPut”ting.lu@baml.comWebelievePremierLiKeqiang’slatestvowtopreventgrowthfromslippingbelowXiaojiaZhi+85221617815ChinaEconomistace
4、rtain“floor”finallyconvincedfragilemarketsthathisnewgovernmentstillMerrillLynch(HongKong)valuesgrowthstabilityandwillemployagradualistapproachinsteadofarecklessxiaojia.zhi@baml.com“kitchensinking”or“shocktherapy”approachtosolvingmanyofChina’sproblems.Webelievewecantermthistemporarypolicyappro
5、achthe“LiKeqiangPut”,meaningLi’sgovernmentwilltrytopreventagrowthhard-landingandaRelatedreports:financialcrisis.Forthemarkets,webelieveanassetpricecrashduetopaniconChina’sgrowthandfinancialstabilitywouldpresentagoodbuyingopportunity.AguessinggameonPremierLi:It’sTooearlytodefine“Liqonomics”pre
6、maturetodefine“LiKeqiangIncontrasttothenewlycoined“Liqonomics”whichdescribesLi’spolicyEconomics”,4July2013frameworkasnostimulus,deleveragingandstructuralreforms,webelieveMr.Liwillnotbeafraidtouselimitedfiscalstimulustodeliverstablegrowth.HewillTheStateCouncilstatementonthelikelyemploya“Loosef
7、iscal,tightmonetary”approachbyleveragingupthefinancialsector:Callingforstability,5Julycentralgovernmentanddeleveraginglocalgovernments.WebelieveMr.Liisa2013reformerbynature,butwewillhavetobepatientwhilehebuildshisteamandfiguresouthisactionablereformplans.WhathecandeliveronreformsinthenearOurt
8、houghtsonChina’screditsqueeze:termisquiteuncertain,sooptimistsinthisregardcouldbedisappointed.Whythesqueezewillbeendedsoon,25June2013Whywestillhavea“LiKeqiangPut”First,wethinkMr.Lineedsastablegrowthenvironmenttoconsolidatehispowerbase,asagrowthhardlandingorfinancialchaoscouldmakepeoplethinkhe
9、hasnoeffectivecontrolofthegovernmentandlacksthecapacitytodeliverastableeconomy.Second,Mr.Lialsoneedstobuytimetodrawhisreformplans.Third,asMr.Lijusttookoffice,hemaynotbeconfidentenoughyettousea“shocktherapy”approachtostartreforms.Finally,webel
