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1、December5,2012GlobalPreciousMetalsCommoditiesResearchGoldcyclesettoturnonimprovingUSrecoveryGoldpricesrangeboundin2012despiteperfectsetupDamienCourvalinGoldpriceshaveremainedrangeboundin2012,despiteasteadydecline(212)902-3307damien.courvalin@gs.cominUSrealratesandriseincentral
2、bankholdingsthatwouldordinarilybeGoldman,Sachs&Co.supportive.TounderstandthisdislocationweexpandourmodelingofgoldJeffreyCurriepricestoincludetheimpactoftheUSFederalReserveeasing.Wefindthat(212)357-6801jeffrey.currie@gs.comgoldprices“lookthrough”easingthatdoesnotrequireFedbalan
3、cesheetGoldman,Sachs&Co.expansion–likeOperationTwist–increasinginsteadonannouncementsofeasingthroughexpansionontheFed’sbalancesheet.ImprovingUSgrowthoutlookoffsetsfurtherFedeasingOureconomistsforecastthattheUSeconomicrecoverywillslowearlyin2013beforereacceleratinginthesecondha
4、lf.TheyalsoexpectadditionalexpansionoftheFed’sbalancesheet.Nearterm,thecombinationofmoreeasingandweakergrowthshouldprovesupportivetogoldprices.Mediumtermhowever,thegoldoutlookiscaughtbetweentheopposingforcesofmoreFedeasingandagradualincreaseinUSrealratesonbetterUSeconomicgrowt
5、h.OurexpandedmodelingsuggeststhattheimprovingUSgrowthoutlookwilloutweighfurtherFedbalancesheetexpansionandthatthecycleingoldpriceswilllikelyturnin2013.Riskstoourgrowthoutlookremainelevatedhowever,especiallygiventheuncertaintyaroundthefiscalcliff,makingcallingthepeakingoldprice
6、sadifficultexercise.Goldcyclelikelytoturnin2013;loweringgoldpriceforecastsWelowerour3-,6-and12-mogoldpriceforecaststo$1,825/toz,$1,805/tozand$1,800/tozandintroducea$1,750/toz2014forecast.Whileweseepotentialforhighergoldpricesinearly2013,weseegrowingdownsiderisks.Asaresult,wefi
7、ndthattherisk-rewardofholdingalonggoldpositionisdiminishingandrecommendrollingourlongDec-12COMEXgoldpositionintoalongApr-13positionandsellinga$1,850/tozcalltofinancea$1,575/tozputtoprotectagainstadeclineingoldprices.Since2009,thisstrategyachievedabetterSharperatiothanalonggold
8、position.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactor
