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1、HumanMobilityNetworks,TravelRestrictions,andtheGlobalSpreadof2009H1N1Pandemic1,2.1.31,45,6,7PaoloBajardi,ChiaraPoletto,JoseJ.Ramasco,MicheleTizzoni,VittoriaColizza*,8,9,10AlessandroVespignani*1ComputationalEpidemiologyLaboratory,InstituteforScientificInterc
2、hange(ISI),Torino,Italy,2CentredePhysiqueThe´orique(CNRSUMR6207),Marseille,France,3InstitutodeFı´sicaInterdisciplinarySistemasComplejosIFISC(CSIC-UIB),PalmadeMallorca,Spain,4ScuoladiDottorato,PolitecnicodiTorino,Torino,Italy,5INSERM,U707,Paris,France,6UPMCU
3、niversite´Paris06,Faculte´deMe´decinePierreetMarieCurie,UMRS707,Paris,France,7ComplexSystemsLagrangeLaboratory,InstituteforScientificInterchange(ISI),Torino,Italy,8CenterforComplexNetworksandSystemsResearch(CNetS),SchoolofInformaticsandComputing,IndianaUniv
4、ersity,Bloomington,Indiana,UnitedStatesofAmerica,9PervasiveTechnologyInstitute,IndianaUniversity,Bloomington,Indiana,UnitedStatesofAmerica,10InstituteforScientificInterchange(ISI),Torino,ItalyAbstractAftertheemergenceoftheH1N1influenzain2009,somecountriesre
5、spondedwithtravel-relatedcontrolsduringtheearlystageoftheoutbreakinanattempttocontainorslowdownitsinternationalspread.Thesecontrolsalongwithself-imposedtravellimitationscontributedtoadeclineofabout40%ininternationalairtrafficto/fromMexicofollowingtheinterna
6、tionalalert.However,nocontainmentwasachievedbysuchrestrictionsandtheviruswasabletoreachpandemicproportionsinashorttime.Whengaugingthevalueandefficacyofmobilityandtravelrestrictionsitiscrucialtorelyonepidemicmodelsthatintegratethewiderangeoffeaturescharacter
7、izinghumanmobilityandthemanyoptionsavailabletopublichealthorganizationsforrespondingtoapandemic.Herewepresentacomprehensivecomputationalandtheoreticalstudyoftheroleoftravelrestrictionsinhaltinganddelayingpandemicsbyusingamodelthatexplicitlyintegratesairtrav
8、elandshort-rangemobilitydatawithhigh-resolutiondemographicdataacrosstheworldandthatisvalidatedbytheaccumulationofdatafromthe2009H1N1pandemic.Weexplorealternativescenariosforthe2009H1N1pandemicbyassessi
