Asian Currency Guide 2011-2012

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1、AsiaStrategyViewpointPrimerGEMsFixedIncomeStrategy&EconomicsAsia26April2011TheVanguard:AsianCurrencyGuide2011-2012ChristyTan+6565910427EmergingAsiaFXStrategistMerrillLynch(Singapore)Asiancurrencies:aparadigmshiftinprogresschristy.c.tan@baml.comWebelievethatAsiancurre

2、nciesareatthecuspofaparadigmshift.AfewClaudioPiron+6565910401EmergingAsiaFIStrategistobservationssupportthisprognosis:MerrillLynch(Singapore)claudio.piron@baml.com¢AsiancurrencieshaverecoveredstronglyfromtheLehmancrisisin2008/9AshokBhundia+85225363965andourin-housein

3、dexMLFXAXESshowthatAsiancurrenciesarenowEmergingAsiaRatesStrategisttradingabovepre-crisislevels.MerrillLynch(HongKong)ashok.bhundia@baml.com¢DailyturnoverforglobalforeignexchangetradinghasincreasedtoGEMsFIStrategy&Economics+16468554044MLPF&SUSD4.0trillion,20%higherin

4、April2010thaninApril2007.Amidthis,volumeMLEM_Strategy@ml.comandformofforeignexchangetransactionsforAsiancurrencieshavegrownmeaningfully.¢Foreignexchangeliberalization-theemergenceofnewmarketsandproducts(eg.offshoreChineserenminbibusinessorCNH).¢“Financialization”and“

5、internationalization”–theBankofInternationalSettlements(BIS)describestheseasaphenomenonwhereasincomepercapitaofacountryrises,acurrencytradesingreatermultiplesofthedomesticeconomy’sunderlyingtradeandtradestoagreaterextentoutsidethedomesticmarkets.¢Less“dollarization”,

6、more“effectiveexchangerate”inAsia.Essentially,tradingandtransactiondynamicsinAsiahavebeenshifting,expandingalongwithgreatertrans-Asiagoodsandservicestrade.CurrenciesareincreasinglymonitoredandmanagedrelativetotradeweightsratherthanjustversustheUSD.Anup-closehandbooko

7、nAsiancurrenciesWithakeeneyeontheprogressanddevelopmentinAsia’sforeignexchangemarkets,thefollowingpagesencompassadetailedandcomprehensiveguideonindividualAsiancurrencies.Thesewillincludeanexplorationoftheregulatorylandscapeforforeignexchangeinvestments,themarketdynam

8、icsineachAsiancountryaswellasBankofAmericaMerrillLynch’sFXcapabilities.GatewaytoturnglobalperspectiveintopreciseFXsolutionsBankofAm