Aggregate Supply in the United States Recent--W.L.Washer

《Aggregate Supply in the United States Recent--W.L.Washer》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。

1、14THJACQUESPOLAKANNUALRESEARCHCONFERENCENOVEMBER7–8,2013AggregateSupplyintheUnitedStates:RecentDevelopmentsandImplicationsfortheConductofMonetaryPolicyDaveReifschneiderFederalReserveBoardWilliamL.WascherFederalReserveBoardDavidWilcoxFederalReserveBoardP

2、aperpresentedatthe14thJacquesPolakAnnualResearchConferenceHostedbytheInternationalMonetaryFundWashington,DC─November7–8,2013Theviewsexpressedinthispaperarethoseoftheauthor(s)only,andthepresenceofthem,oroflinkstothem,ontheIMFwebsitedoesnotimplythattheIMF

3、,itsExecutiveBoard,oritsmanagementendorsesorsharestheviewsexpressedinthepaper.AggregateSupplyintheUnitedStates:RecentDevelopmentsandImplicationsfortheConductofMonetaryPolicy1DaveReifschneider,WilliamWascher,andDavidWilcoxNovember1,2013AbstractTherecentf

4、inancialcrisisandensuingrecessionappeartohaveputtheproductivecapacityoftheeconomyonalowerandshallowertrajectorythantheonethatseemedtobeinplacepriorto2007.UsingaversionofanunobservedcomponentsmodelintroducedbyFleischmanandRoberts(2011),weestimatethatpote

5、ntialGDPiscurrentlyabout7percentbelowthetrajectoryitappearedtobeonpriorto2007.Wealsoexaminetherecentperformanceofthelabormarket.Whiletheavailableindicatorsarestillinconclusive,someindicatorssuggestthathysteresisshouldbeamorepresentconcernnowthanithasbee

6、nduringpreviousperiodsofeconomicrecoveryintheUnitedStates.Wegoontoarguethatasignificantportionoftherecentdamagetothesupplysideoftheeconomyplausiblywasendogenoustotheweaknessinaggregatedemand—contrarytotheconventionalviewthatpolicymakersmustsimplyaccommo

7、datethemselvestoaggregatesupplyconditions.Endogeneityofsupplywithrespecttodemandprovidesastrongmotivationforavigorouspolicyresponsetoaweakeninginaggregatedemand,andwepresentoptimal-controlsimulationsshowinghowmonetarypolicymightrespondtosuchendogeneityi

8、ntheabsenceofotherconsiderations.Wethendiscusshowotherconsiderations—suchasincreasedrisksoffinancialinstabilityorinflationinstability—couldcausepolicymakerstoexerciserestraintintheirresponsetocyclicalweakness.1DaveReifschneider(d