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1、FrequencyAnalysisofFloodDamage12L.ZhangandVijayP.Singh,F.ASCEAbstract:Determinationof¯ooddamagefrequenciesconstitutesafundamentalcomponentofanycomprehensive¯ood-riskmethodol-ogy.Atimeseriesof¯ooddamagemaycontainzerovalues.Therefore,theprobabilitydistributionofdamageshouldbederivedtakingintoconsidera
2、tionthesezerovalues.Thisdistributionwasderivedusingthetotalprobabilitytheorem~inconjunctionwithgamma,log-normalandWeibulldistributions!,orderstatistics,kinematicdiffusion~KD!model,andtheBox-Coxtransformation.Flooddamagefrequenciesdeterminedusingthesemethodswerecomparedwiththosedeterminedempiricallyf
3、orAlabama,Louisiana,Mississippi,andTexasintheUnitedStates.Forthefoursouthernstatesstudied,itisfoundthatofallthreedifferentanalysismethods,themethodbasedonthetotalprobabilitytheoremgavethebestresultsforthe¯ooddamageanalysiscontainingzero-damage,andtheKDmodelmethodisnotsuitableforthe¯ooddamageanalysis
4、.DOI:10.1061/~ASCE!1084-0699~2005!10:2~100!CEDatabasesubjectheadings:Frequencyanalysis;Flooddamage;Riskanalysis;Probability.Introductioningathreshold.Forderivingaprobabilitydistributionof¯ooddamage,oneneedstoconsidertheprobabilitydistributionofFloodingisoneoftheleadingcausesoflossoflifeandproperty.¯
5、oodeventsbelowacertainthresholdthatcontributetothezero-Halfofalllossescausedbynaturalphenomenaareusuallyattrib-damagepartandtheprobabilitydistributionof¯oodeventsaboveutedto¯ooding.Inrecentyears,¯ooddamagehasbeenonthethethresholdthatcontributetothe¯ooddamage.Theobjectivesofthisstudyaretodemonstratea
6、frequencyrise,largelybecauseofchangesinlanduseandotherhumananalysisof¯ooddamageusingorderstatistics,totalprobability,activities,andpossiblybecauseofclimatechange.InarecentBox-Coxtransformation,andthekinematicdiffusionmodel;10-yearperiod~1991to2000!,thelossescasuedby¯oodinginevaluatethesemethodsusing
7、the¯ood-damagedataofAlabama,theworldhavemountedtomorethan$250billion~Kron2000!.Louisiana,MississippiandTexas;andthereforerecommendaAccordingtoFEMA~2001!,duringthesameperiod,thetotalmethodthatmightbesu
