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1、BOYSWILLBEBOYS:GENDER,OVERCONFIDENCE,ANDCOMMONSTOCKINVESTMENT*BRADM.BARBERANDTERRANCEODEANTheoreticalmodelspredictthatovercondentinvestorstradeexcessively.Wetestthispredictionbypartitioninginvestorsongender.Psychologicalresearchdemonstratesthat,inareassuchasnance,menaremoreovercondentt
2、hanwomen.Thus,theorypredictsthatmenwilltrademoreexcessivelythanwomen.Usingaccountdataforover35,000householdsfromalargediscountbrokerage,weanalyzethecommonstockinvestmentsofmenandwomenfromFebruary1991throughJanuary1997.Wedocumentthatmentrade45percentmorethanwomen.Tradingreducesmen’snetr
3、eturnsby2.65percentagepointsayearasopposedto1.72percentagepointsforwomen.It’snotwhatamandon’tknowthatmakeshimafool,butwhathedoesknowthatain’tso.JoshBillings,nineteenthcenturyAmericanhumoristItisdifculttoreconcilethevolumeoftradingobservedinequitymarketswiththetradingneedsofrationalinve
4、stors.Ra-tionalinvestorsmakeperiodiccontributionsandwithdrawalsfromtheirinvestmentportfolios,rebalancetheirportfolios,andtradetominimizetheirtaxes.Thosepossessedofsuperiorinfor-mationmaytradespeculatively,althoughrationalspeculativetraderswillgenerallynotchoosetotradewitheachother.Itis
5、unlikelythatrationaltradingneedsaccountforaturnoverrateof76percentontheNewYorkStockExchangein1998.1Webelievethereisasimpleandpowerfulexplanationforhighlevelsoftradingonnancialmarkets:overcondence.Hu-manbeingsareovercondentabouttheirabilities,theirknowl-edge,andtheirfutureprospects.Odea
6、n[1998]showsthatover-condentinvestors—whobelievethattheprecisionoftheirknowledgeaboutthevalueofasecurityisgreaterthanitactually*WearegratefultothediscountbrokeragermthatprovideduswiththedataforthisstudyandgratefultoPaulThomas,DavidMoore,PaineWebber,andtheGallupOrganizationforprovidings
7、urveydata.WeappreciatethecommentsofDianeDelGuercio,DavidHirshleifer,AndrewKarolyi,TimothyLoughran,EdwardOptonJr.,SylvesterSchieber,AndreiShleifer,MarthaStarr-McCluer,RichardThaler,LuisViceira,andparticipantsattheUniversityofAlberta,ArizonaStateUniversity,INSEAD,theLondonBusinessSchoo
