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1、InternationalFinance7:1,2004:pp.85116StructuralTraps,PoliticsandMonetaryPolicyRobertH.DuggerandAngelUbideTudorInvestmentCorporation.AbstractStructuralconditionsposeachallengetomonetarypolicy,astheexampleofJapanshows.Inthispaperwedeveloptheconceptofstructuraltrap,wheretheinter
2、playoflong-termeconomicdevelopmentincentives,politics,anddemographicsresultsineconomiesbeingunabletoeffi-cientlyreallocatecapitalfromlow-tohigh-returnuses.Theresultingmacroeconomicpicturelookslikealiquiditytrap–lowGDPgrowthanddeflationdespiteextrememonetaryeasing.Buttheoptimalpo
3、licyresponsesareverydifferentandmistakingthemcouldleadtoperverseresults.Thekeydifferencebetweenaliquiditytrapandastructuraloneistheroleofpolitics.Weshowhow,intheJapanesecase,longstandingeconomicincentivesandprotectionsanddemographictrendshaveresultedinapoliticalleadershipthatr
4、esistscapitalreallocationfromolderprotectedlow-returnsectorstohigher-returnnewerones.IftheJapanesecaseisinstructive,inastructuraltrap,extremelyloosemonetarypolicyperpetuatesdeflationandlowGDPgrowth,becauseTheauthorsarerespectivelyManagingDirectorandDirectorofGlobalEconomics,Tu
5、dorInvestmentCorporation.AversionofthispaperwaspresentedattheCentralBankersSymposiumorganizedbyNomuraSecuritiesinKyoto,Japan,inMay2002.Theauthorsareindebtedtotworeferees,anassociateeditor,AlbertoMusalem,YuriOkane,KohoNakatakeandseveralpeoplewhoprovidedvaluablecommentsonearlier
6、drafts.TheviewsexpressedareentirelypersonalanddonotrepresenttheviewsofTudorInvestmentCorporation.Theerrorsarewhollytheresponsibilityoftheauthors.rBlackwellPublishingLtd.2004,9600GarsingtonRoad,OxfordOX42DQ,UKand350MainStreet,Malden,MA02148,USA86RobertH.DuggerandAngelUbideunpro
7、ductivebutpoliticallyimportantfirmsareallowedtosurviveandcapitalreallocationisprevented.Bypreventingtheneededreductioninexcesscapacity,astructuraltrapcondemnsreflationarypoliciestofailurebymakingthecreationofcredibleinflationexpectationsimpossible.Facedwithastructuraltrap,anindep
8、endentcentralbankwithapricestabilitymandateshouldadoptamoneta
