资源描述：
《Charlie Munger- The psychology of human misjudgment》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。
1、CHARLIEMUNGERONTHEPSYCHOLOGYOFHUMANMISJUDGMENTSpeechatHarvardUniversityEstimateddate:June,1995Transcription,comments[inbrackets]andminoreditingbyWhitneyTilson(feedback@tilsonfunds.com)Moderator:Aandtheydiscoveredextreme,obviousirrationalityinmanyareasoftheeconomy
2、thattheylookedat.Andtheywerealittlebittroubledbecausenothingthattheyhadlearnedingraduateschoolexplainedthesepatterns.NowIwouldhopethatMr.Mungerspendsalittlebitmoretimearoundgraduateschoolstoday,becauseweHvegottennowwherehewas30yearsago,andwearetryingtoexplainthos
3、epatterns,andsomeofthepeoplewhoaredoingthatwillbespeakingwithyoutoday.SoIthinkhethinksofhisspecialtyasthePsychologyofHumanMisjudgment,andpartofthishumanmisjudgment,ofcourse,comesfromworryingaboutthetypesoffadsandsocialpressuresthatHenryKaufmantalkedtousabout.Ithi
4、nkitHssignificantthatBerkshireHathawayisnotheadquarteredinNewYork,oreveninLosAngelesorSanFrancisco,butratherintheheartofthecountryinNebraska.Whenhereferredtothisproblemofhumanmisjudgment,heidentifiedtwosignificantproblems,andIHmsurethattherearemanymore,butwhenhes
5、aid,UBynotrelyingonthis,andnotunderstandingthis,itwascostingmealotofmoney,VandIpresumethatsomeofyouarehereinthetheorythatmaybeitHscostingyouevenasomewhatlesseramountofmoney.AndthesecondpointthatMr.MungermadewasitwasreducingAnotunderstandinghumanmisjudgmentwasredu
6、cingmyabilitytohelpeverythingIloved.WellIhopehelovesyou,andIHmsureheHllhelpyou.Thankyou.[Applause]Munger:AlthoughIamveryinterestedinthesubjectofhumanmisjudgment--andlordknowsIHvecreatedagoodbitofit--IdonHtthinkIHvecreatedmyfullstatisticalshare,andIthinkthatoneoft
7、hereasonswasItriedtodosomethingaboutthisterribleignoranceIlefttheHarvardLawSchoolwith.WhenIsawthispatternedirrationality,whichwassoextreme,andIhadnotheoryoranythingtodealwithit,butIcouldseethatitwasextreme,andIcouldseethatitwaspatterned,Ijuststartedtocreatemyowns
8、ystemofpsychology,partlybycasualreading,butlargelyfrompersonalexperience,andIusedthatpatterntohelpmegetthroughlife.FairlylateinlifeIstumbledintothisbook,Influe
