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1、EpistemologyandthePsychologyofHumanJudgmentThispageintentionallyleftblankThispageintentionallyleftblankEpistemologyandthePsychologyofHumanJudgmentMichaelABishopJ.D.Trout120051OxfordNewYorkAucklandBangkokBuenosAiresCapeTownChennaiDaresSalaamDelhiHongKongIstanb
2、ulKarachiKolkataKualaLumpurMadridMelbourneMexicoCityMumbaiNairobiSa˜oPauloShanghaiSingaporeTaipeiTokyoTorontoCopyright#2005byOxfordUniversityPress,Inc.PublishedbyOxfordUniversityPress,Inc.198MadisonAvenue,NewYork,NewYork10016www.oup.comOxfordisaregisteredtrad
3、emarkofOxfordUniversityPressAllrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,inanyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recording,orotherwise,withoutthepriorpermissionofOxfordUniversityPress.Library
4、ofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationDataBishop,MichaelAEpistemologyandthepsychologyofhumanjudgment/MichaelABishop,J.D.Trout.p.cm.Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.ISBN0-19-516229-3;0-19-516230-7(pbk.)1.Judgment.I.Trout,J.D.II.Title.BF441.B6162004121—dc
5、222004043889987654321PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmericaonacid-freepaperToourwives,LorettaTorragoandJaniceNadler,andtotheveritablebasketballteamweproducedwhilewritingthisbook:MiguelBishopTorrago7/5/2000DanielBishopTorrago9/26/2001NicolasBishopTorrago3/19/2003Ja
6、ckNadler7/5/2000JessieNadler4/14/2004MiguelandJack,ourfirstchildren,werebornonthesameday.Ouractuarialoutlookcounselsthatthisisanunimpressivecoincidence.Butreally,whatarethechances?ThispageintentionallyleftblankThispageintentionallyleftblankPrefaceThisbookbegan
7、inourclassrooms.Atsomepoint,wediscoveredthatwebothteachcriticalthinkingcoursesthatareidiosyncraticinthesameways—inshort,asthoughtheyarecoursesinthepsychologyofjudgment.Forexample,webothhadourstudentsreadRobynDawes’sHouseofCards(1994)andThomasGilovich’sHowWeKn
8、owWhatIsn’tSo(1991).Weindependentlyarrivedattheideathattherewereepistemo-logicallessonstobedrawnnotjustfromtheheuristicsandbiasestradition(whichhasreceivedattentionfromphilosophers)butals
