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1、RegionalScienceandUrbanEconomics21(1991)539-546.North-HollandHousepricesanddemographicchangeCanadianevidence*GaryV.EngelhardtandJamesM.PoterbaMIT,Cambridge,MA02139,USAFinalversionreceivedDecember1990Weexaminethelinksbetweendemography-inducedchangesinhousingdeman
2、dandrealhousepricesusingpostwardataforCanada.AlthoughCanadiandemographicpatternsareverysimilartothoseintheUnitedStates,realhousepricesexhibitasubstantiallydifferenttrajectory:theyriseintheearly197Os,andthenfallnearlyfortypercentbetween1975andthemid-1980s.Weestim
3、atesimpletime-seriesmodelsrelatinghousepricestodemographicfactors,andunlikepreviousestimatesfortheU.S.byMankiwandWeil(1989),wefindastatisticallyinsignificantandinmostcasesnegativeassociationbetweendemographicdemandandhouseprices.Theseresultssuggestcautioninextra
4、polatinghistoricalU.S.trendstothenextcentury,whilealsoillustratingthatsubstantialrealdeclinesinhousevaluesarenotimpossible.1.IntroductionTimeseriesdatafortheUnitedStatessuggestastrikingcorrelationbetweentheagestructureofthepopulationandrealhouseprices.MankiwandW
5、eil(1989),thefirstauthorstodrawattentiontothispattern,arguethatifthehistoricalcorrelationpersists,realhousepricesintheUnitedStatescouldfallsubstantiallyduringthenextthreedecades.ThispaperexaminestherobustnessoftheMankiw-Weilfindingsbyconsideringtheirapplicabilit
6、yinCanada,anationwithademographicpatternsimilartothatintheU.S.butwitharadicallydifferentpatternofhouseprices.Theresultscastdoubtonthelinkbetweendemographicfactorsandhouseprices.Thestudyisdividedintofoursections.Thefirstcomparesthepatternofrealhousepricesandthede
7、mographicstructureinthetwocountries.Thesecondsectiondescribestheestimationofage-specificdemandforhousingandtheconstructionoftheaggregatehousingdemandvariable.Section3reportsestimatesofhousingdemandequationsinordertodeterminethe*WearegratefultotheNationalScienceF
8、oundation,theAlfredP.SloanFoundation,theJohnM.OlinFoundation,andtheHarryandLyndeBradleyFoundationforresearchsupport,toStatisticsCanadaforprovidinguswithdata,andtoLoui
