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1、XPREFACEyoualsogoestoDaveofLogicalSystemsInc.forprogram-mingsupportandtoMarkWiemelerandKenforthechartspresentedinthebook.ThanksarealsoduetograduateassistantsDanielSnyderandfortheiruntiringefforts.SpecialthanksareduetoJohnOlesonforintroducingmetochart-basedriskandrewardesti-mationtec
2、hniques.MydebttotheseindividualsparallelstheenormousdebtIowetoDeanOlgaEngelhardtforencouragingmetowritethebookandAssociateDeanKathleenforprovidingvaluableadministrativesupport.Mychairperson,ProfessorC.T.Chen,deservesspecialcommendationforcreatinganenvironmentconducivetothinkingandwr
3、iting.IalsowishtothanktheNortheasternIllinoisUniversityFoundationforitsgeneroussupportofmyresearchendeavors.Finally,IwishtothankKarlWeber,AssociatePublisher,JohnWileySons,forhisinfinitepatiencewithandsupportofafirst-timewriter.Contents1UnderstandingtheMoneyManagementProcess1Stepsint
4、heMoneyManagementProcess,-1RankingofAvailableOpportunities,2ControllingOverallExposure,3AllocatingRiskCapital,4AssessingtheMaximumPermissibleLossonaTrade,4TheRiskEquation,5DecidingtheNumberofContractstobeTraded:BalancingtheRiskEquation,6ConsequencesofTradinganUnbalancedRiskEquation,
5、6Conclusion,72TheDynamicsofRuin8Inaction,8IncorrectAction,9AssessingtheMagnitudeofLoss,11TheRiskofRuin,12SimulatingtheRiskofRuin,16Conclusion,21xiiCONTENTS3EstimatingRiskandReward23TheImportanceofDefiningRisk,23TheImportanceofEstimatingReward,24EstimatingRiskandRewardonCommonlyObser
6、vedPatterns,24Head-and-ShouldersFormation,25DoubleTopsandBottoms,30SaucersandRoundedTopsandBottoms,34V-Formations,Spikes,andIslandReversals,35SymmetricalandRight-AngleTriangles,41Wedges,43Flags,44RewardEstimationintheAbsenceofMeasuringRules,46SynthesizingRiskandReward,51Conclusion,5
7、24LimitingRiskthroughDiversification53MeasuringtheReturnonaFuturesTrade,55MeasuringRiskonIndividualCommodities,59MeasuringRiskAcrossCommoditiesTradedJointly:TheConceptofCorrelationBetweenCommodities,62WhyDiversificationWorks,64Aggregation:TheFlipSidetoDiversification,67CheckingforSi
8、gnificantCorrelatio
