MacKinsey 2011 Pathways_low_carbon_economy_brazil_ashx

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1、PATHWAYSTOALOW-CARBONECONOMYFORBRAZILPathwaystoaLow-CarbonEconomyforBrazil•a•PrefaceLeadersinmanynationsarecurrentlydiscussingambitioustargetsforreducingemissionsofgreenhousegases(GHGs)inordertomitigatetheseriousimpactofclimatechangeontheenvironment,huma

2、nsocieties,andoureconomies.Manyscientistsandpolicymakersbelievethatlimitingtheriseinglobalmeantemperaturesbelow2degreesCelsiusisanimportantaim,astheyseethisasathresholdwheretheimplicationsofglobalwarmingbecomeveryserious.Aimingtocontributetothesediscussi

3、ons,McKinsey&Companyhasundertakenaglobalefforttoprovideafactbaseonwhattechnicalleversexisttoachieveabatementfromtheprojectedbasecaseofemissions,andatwhatcost.Theglobalworkconcludedthattheimplementationofsome200initiativesacrosstenmajoreconomicactivitiesa

4、nd21regionshasthepotentialtoreducetheseadmissionsby55percent,atacostofless�60pertonneofCOe1oreven70percentwithhigher2costinitiativesorbysequesteringatmosphericcarbon.ThefollowingreportfocusesonwhatthechallengeisforBraziltoplayitspartinthisprocessofabatin

5、gcarbonemissions.Notsurprisingly,itidentifiesreducingdeforestationandemissionsfromtheagriculturesectorasthemainsourcesofabatement,representing85percentoftheabatementpotentialinthecountry.Aparticularchallengeforthetaskforcewasthequantificationofwhatitwoul

6、dcosttoeffectivelystopdeforestationby2030,especiallyintheAmazonbiome.Itisnotourintentiontopointthewaytoaspecificpathtosolveaproblemascomplexasthisone.Ourcontributionconsistsofcompilingtheworksofnumerousexpertswhohavebeenstudyingthisthemefordecades,andpub

7、licmanagerswhohavethepracticaljoboffacingthischallenge,todevelopasystemicapproachforaddressingtheissue.Thisapproachisanchoredonstrengtheningtheinstitutionsandmonitoringandcontrolmechanisms,oncreatingincentivestodevelopandgrowsustainableforestryactivities

8、,andinvestmentstocreate1COemeans“carbondioxideequivalent”,astandardunitusedtomeasureGHGsand2methane.EmissionsaremeasuredinmetrictonnesofCOeperyearormultiplessuchas2million(MtCOe)orbillion(GtCOe)metrictonnes.22•1•formaljobs