How To Think About China外文

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1、abGlobalEconomic&StrategyResearchAsiaUBSInvestmentResearchHongKongAsianEconomicPerspectivesHowToThinkAboutChinaJanuary2006www.ubs.com/economicsJonathanAndersonChiefEconomist,Asiajonathan.anderson@ubs.com+852-29718515nPart1:Stateeconomyormarketeconomy?nPart2:TheagingofChinanPart3:

2、Whichwayoutforthebankingsystem?nPart4:Howseriousaresocio-economictensions?nPart5:Themaindriversofmedium-termgrowthnPart6:SevenwaysChinawon’tchangetheworldThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyUBSSecuritiesAsiaLtdANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURESBEGINONPAGE2281UBSdoesandseekstodobus

3、inesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Part1–StateEconomyorMarketEconomy?HowTo

4、ThinkAboutChina–Part1nPart1:Stateeconomyormarketeconomy?nPart2:TheagingofChinanPart3:Whichwayoutforthebankingsystem?nPart4:Howseriousaresocio-economictensions?nPart5:Themaindriversofmedium-termgrowthnPart6:SevenwaysChinawon’tchangetheworldNote:ThisinstallmentwasfirstpublishedasAs

5、ianEconomicPerspectives,5January2005UBS2Part1–StateEconomyorMarketEconomy?Summary–thefivethingsyouneedtoknowNotopiccouldbemorefittingfortheopeningsectionofthisseriesthantheroleofthestateinChina’seconomy.Inourview,gettingthisquestion“right”isthesinglemostimportantkeytoaproperunder

6、standingofhowthemainlandworks.Here’stheproblem.Onetheonehand,ChinahascomealongwayfromaChinaismuchmoremarket-oriented...traditionalcommunisteconomy,wherethestatehadfullcontrolofallassetsandbutagoodshareoftheeconomyisstillauthorityoveralmosteverycommercialtransaction;after20yearsof

7、reforms,state-ownedthereisnodoubtthatthemainlandhasbecomemuchmoremarket-oriented.Ontheother,thegovernmentstillformallyownsandrunsasizeablechunkofthesystem,andinparticularthe“commandingheights”ofheavyindustry,capital-intensiveservicesandthefinancialsystem.Asaresult,describingChina

8、’seconomycanresemblethetaleoftheblindmen