A model of belief influence in large social networks

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1、EconTheory(2015)59:2159DOI10.1007/s00199-015-0861-3RESEARCHARTICLEAmodelofbeliefinfluenceinlargesocialnetworksAntonioJiménez-MartínezReceived:19June2014/Accepted:19January2015/Publishedonline:7February2015©Springer-VerlagBerlinHeidelberg2015AbstractThispaperdevelopsamodelofbeliefinfluencethroughco

2、mmunicationinanexogenoussocialnetwork.Thenetworkisweightedanddirected,anditenablesindividualstolistentoothersopinionsaboutsomeexogenousparameterofinterest.AgentsuseBayesianupdatingrules.Theweightofeachlinkisexogenouslygiven,anditspecifiesthequalityofthecorrespondinginformationflow.Weexploretheeffe

3、ctsofthenetworkontheagentsfirst-orderbeliefsabouttheparameterandinvestigatetheaggregationofprivateinformationinlargesocieties.Webeginbycharacterizinganagentslimitingbeliefsintermsofsomeentropy-basedmeasuresoftheconditionaldistributionsavailabletohimfromthenetwork.Ourresultsonconsensusandcor-rectn

4、essoflimitingbeliefsareinconsonancewithsomeoftheliteratureonopinioninfluenceundernon-Bayesianupdatingrules.First,weshowthattheachievementofaconsensusinthesocietyiscloselyrelatedtothepresenceofprominentagentswhoareabletocruciallychangetheevolutionofotheragentsopinionsovertime.Secondly,weshowthatth

5、ecorrectaggregationofprivateinformationisfacilitatedwhentheinfluenceoftheprominentagentsisnotveryhigh.KeywordsCommunicationnetworks·Opinioninfluence,Bayesianupdatingrules·Privatesignals·Privatemessages·Consensus·CorrectlimitingbeliefsAcompanionpaperappearsinEmileBorelandtheNotionofStrategy:Ninetie

6、thAnniversaryunderthetitleEvolutionofBeliefsinNetworks.ThisprojecthasbenefitedgreatlyfromveryusefulconversationswithRabahAmir,LucianaMoscoso-Boedo,AlejandroManelli,LarrySamuelson,andMyrnaWooders.Forhelpfulcommentsandsuggestions,Iamalsogratefultotwoanonymousreferees,aneditor,andseminaraudiencesatC

7、IDEandITAM.A.Jiménez-Martínez(B)DivisióndeEconomía,CentrodeInvestigaciónyDocenciaEconómicas(CIDE),01210MexicoCity,Mexicoe-mail:antonio.jimenez@cide.edu12322A.Jiménez-MartínezJELClassificationD82·D83·D851IntroductionInsocialen