改革以来中国经济周期波动分析(英

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1、TheCESConferenceJuly30-31,2004Atlanta,Georgia,U.S.A.ChangshengXuProfessorofEconomicsSchoolofEconomicsHuazhongUniversityofScience&TechnologyWuhan,ChinaEmail:chshxu@hotmail.com1.TheSituationandCharacteristicsofChina’sBusinessCyclesof25YearssincetheReform

2、●GeneralcharacteristicofChina’smacroeconomy:highgrowth+unstability●ThePerformanceofunstability:4Cyclesand2StagesTable1GrowthRateandInflationRateofChinasincetheReform(1978-2004)Source:SSBC,StatisticalYearbookofChinaandStatisticalBulletin,relatedyears,Chi

3、naStatisticalPublishingHouse(CSPH).Year1978199198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991RealGrowthRateofGDP(%)11.77.67.94.58.510.214.512.98.511.111.34.33.97.0InflationRate(%)7.02.06.02.41.91.52.88.86.07.318.517.82.12.9Year1992199319941995199619971

4、998199920002001200220032004上半年RealGrowthRateofGDP（%）12.813.411.810.29.78.87.87.18.07.38.09.19.7InflationRate(%)5.413.321.714.86.10.8-2.6-3.00.41.0-0.81.23.6CycleLengthofTimeContractionExpansionPeriodYearsPeriodGapofAnnualGrowthRatefromPeaktoTrough(%)Per

5、iodGapofAnnualGrowthRatefromPeaktoTrough(%)Ⅰ1978-198361978-1980(3years)–7.21981-1983(3years)+10.0Ⅱ1984-198741984-1985(2years)–6.01986-1987(2years)+2.8Ⅲ1988-199251988-1989(2years)–7.41990-1992(3years)+9.5Ⅳ1993-presentunknown1993-2001(8years)–6.32002-unkn

6、ownunknownSources:Table1.Table2TheFluctuationSituationof4BusinessCyclesofChinasincetheReformSource:Table1.Figure14BusinessCyclesofChina(1978-2004)●TwoStages：（1）1978—1996,FightingInflationStage（2）1997—2002,FightingDeflationStage2.TheCausesofHighInflation

7、during1978-1996●Inthisstage,thefirstproblemofChina’seconomyiscurbingthehighinflationwithfasteconomicgrowth.●4peaksofhighinflation：(1)1978:7.0%(2)1985:8.8%(3)1988:18.5%(4)1994:21.7%●CausesofHighInflation：(1)TheDemand-pulledInflationTheADexpandingmechanis

8、mwithChinesecharacteristic：Thepoliticaldecisionbythehighestleaders→InvestmentprojectsapprovedbetheNationalPlancommittee→IncreasingthefiscalexpenditureofinvestmentbytheMinistryofFinance,andexpandingtheloanbythestate-ownedbanks→Exp