《全球磷肥展望》PPT课件

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1、ChinaPhosphateFertilizersandCompoundsTradeFair-Shandong-October2008GlobalPhosphateOutlook2008-2009全球磷肥展望MichelPrud’hommeIFA–Francemprudhomme@fertilizer.orgNon-for-profitorganizationrepresentingtheglobalfertilizerindustryandrelatedservices.非营利组织，代表全球肥料工业及相关服务530membercompaniesin87countries.有530

2、个会员单位，来自于87个国家IFA’smandate:IFA的使命Promotethesustainableandresponsibleproductionoffertilizers.促进可持续的和负责任的肥料生产Fosteranopenbusinessandtradeenvironment.培育开放的商业和贸易环境Supportthedevelopmentofasustainableandefficientuseofplantnutrients.支持可持续的和高效的利用作物养分的开发InternationalFertilizerIndustryAssociation国际肥料工业协

3、会1-WorldAgricultureSituation世界农业形势2-FertilizerandFertilizerPhosphateDemand肥料及肥料磷酸盐的需求3-PhosphateRockandPhosphoricAcidOutlook磷矿和磷酸市场展望4–ProcessedPhosphatesOutlook精细磷化工市场展望Content内容FertilizerDemandDrivers推动肥料需求的因素Cropsupplyanddemandprojections粮食供求预测Foodpricesdrivers粮食价格Increasingpopulation,globa

4、leconomicgrowth,risingmeatconsumptionpercapita人口增长、全球经济增长、人均肉食消费的提高Escalatingcrudeoilprice,expansionofbiofuelproduction石油价格上涨，生物燃料生产的扩张Declininggraininventories谷物库存的降低Risingfarmproductioncost种植成本的升高Weatherfactors气候因素Nationaltradepolicies各国贸易政策的调整Sources:IFA,derivedfromERS-USDA,July2008WorldCer

5、ealProductionandUtilization全球谷物生产和消费趋势Source:FAO,July2008BilliontonnesWorldCerealStocks全球谷物库存Source:FAO,July2008MilliontonnesWorldFertilizerDemand2005–2012全球肥料需求MilliontonnesnutrientsSource:IFA,2008+2.6%p.a.over2007+2.9%p.a.over2007NP2O5K2OMtnutrients2007p%Over20062008f%Over20072009f%Over2008N

6、99.4+4.6%102.9+3.5%106.0+3.0%P2O540.2+4.5%40.8+1.6%42.1+3.1%K2O29.1+5.9%29.8+2.4%30.5+2.4%Total168.7+4.8%173.5+2.9%178.6+2.9%WorldFertilizerShort-TermConsumption全球肥料短期消费预测Source:IFA,2008WorldPhosphateFertilizerDemand全球磷肥需求MtP2O5+5.0%+3.1%+1.6%+4.5%42.140.840.238.536.6Source:IFA,2008PhosphateNu

7、trientRegionalDemand分地区磷肥需求2007to2009Source:IFA,20085MtP2O520072009+3%+2%+4%+6%+8%050100150200250200720082009201020112012EastAsiaOthersWestAsiaAfricaLatinAmericaNorthAmericaEuropeandEECAWorldPhosphateRockCapability全球磷矿石产能MtproductSource